Economic Outlook – 15 September 2019
US CPI inflation is beginning to heat up more materially. Core prices rose 0.3% for the third straight month, pushing the three-month annualised inflation rate to a 13-year high. The year-on-year rate hit 2.4%, which [...]
Economic Outlook – 8 September 2019
US The ISM manufacturing index fell below 50 in August for the first time since 2016, as more firms reported a contraction than an expansion in manufacturing activity. The decline in the new orders subcomponent [...]
Economic Outlook – 1 September 2019
US The second estimate of Q2 2019 GDP showed the economy grew at a 2.0% annualised pace, which was only a tenth lower than the initial estimate, most likely the consumer carried the weight in [...]
Economic Outlook – 25 August 2019
US The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note jumped at the start of trading last Monday but later decreased sharply to end the week modestly lower. On Thursday, the yield curve again inverted, with [...]
Economic Outlook – 18 August 2019
US The spread between the US two-year Treasury note and the 10-year note fell below zero for a time this week, setting of a recession warning bells. However, the inversion is not yet persistent, and [...]
Economic Outlook – 11 August 2019
US Markets opened on Monday to news that China’s onshore USD/CNY exchange rate traded beyond the symbolic 7.00 per dollar for the first time in more than 10 years. This occurred in the wake of [...]