Monthly Archives: September 2019

September 2019

Economic Outlook – 15 September 2019

2019-09-15T15:06:31+00:00

US CPI inflation is beginning to heat up more materially. Core prices rose 0.3% for the third straight month, pushing the three-month annualised inflation rate to a 13-year high. The year-on-year rate hit 2.4%, which suggests PCE inflation (which tends to run about 0.3% below CPI inflation) may finally be at the Fed’s target. A [...]

Economic Outlook – 15 September 2019 2019-09-15T15:06:31+00:00

Economic Outlook – 8 September 2019

2019-09-09T21:09:04+00:00

US The ISM manufacturing index fell below 50 in August for the first time since 2016, as more firms reported a contraction than an expansion in manufacturing activity. The decline in the new orders subcomponent was even more worrisome. At 47.2, new orders tied the cycle low set in 2012, and suggests activity will remain [...]

Economic Outlook – 8 September 2019 2019-09-09T21:09:04+00:00

Economic Outlook – 1 September 2019

2019-09-02T11:46:40+00:00

US The second estimate of Q2 2019 GDP showed the economy grew at a 2.0% annualised pace, which was only a tenth lower than the initial estimate, most likely the consumer carried the weight in the second quarter. But revised data show personal consumption expenditures rose an even stronger 4.7% (4.3% previously), adding 3.1 percentage [...]

Economic Outlook – 1 September 2019 2019-09-02T11:46:40+00:00