puricassarag

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So far puricassarag has created 299 blog entries.

October 2020

Economic Outlook – 18 October 2020

2020-10-18T21:17:19+00:00

US The latest inflation report should quiet the stagflation chatter that had emerged after a couple of hot months for core inflation. Both headline and core CPI rose a middling 0.2% in the month of September. However, re­moving an outsized 6.7% month-on-month increase in used vehicle prices leaves core inflation flat on the month. During [...]

Economic Outlook – 18 October 2020 2020-10-18T21:17:19+00:00

Economic Outlook – 11 October 2020

2020-10-12T08:27:08+00:00

US The Federal Reserve Chair Powell made a strong case for additional fiscal support in a speech last week. He noted that despite the rebound seen so far, the economy is still in a precarious state. Any slowing in the pace of recovery at this stage risks triggering “typical recessionary dynamics, as weakness feeds on [...]

Economic Outlook – 11 October 2020 2020-10-12T08:27:08+00:00

Economic Outlook – 4 October 2020

2020-10-04T19:09:23+00:00

US The release of employment data for the month of Septem­ber showed ongoing, albeit decelerating progress in the labor market recovery. Indeed, 661,000 payroll jobs were added last month, down from 1.5 million in August. Overall, 51.5% of non-farm payrolls lost since the pandemic be­gan have been recovered. The unemployment rate fell from 8.4% to [...]

Economic Outlook – 4 October 2020 2020-10-04T19:09:23+00:00

September 2020

Economic Outlook – 27 September 2020

2020-09-29T07:30:30+00:00

US Existing home sales rose by 2.4% in August to 6.0 million units (annualized), which marked another post-Great Recession record. The improvement spanned both single and multi-family segments and all four Census regions, though gains in the latter were concentrated in Northeast (13.8%). Meanwhile, in part due to a low inven­tory backdrop, home price growth [...]

Economic Outlook – 27 September 2020 2020-09-29T07:30:30+00:00

Economic Outlook – 20 September 2020

2020-09-22T08:23:04+00:00

US The Federal Reserve indicated that there will be no interest rate increase until at least end of 2023 and will not tighten policy until inflation is higher than 2% for “some time”, a move away from its previous policy goal of “maximum employment” and “symmetric 2% inflation”. This announcement makes the Fed’s desire to [...]

Economic Outlook – 20 September 2020 2020-09-22T08:23:04+00:00

Economic Outlook – 13 September 2020

2020-09-14T10:29:56+00:00

US Economists are revising higher their expectations for US growth in the year's third quarter. Goldman Sachs recently upped its Q3 forecast to a 35.0% annual rate while Bank of America revised its view up to 27.0%. Strong consumer spending and the rebuilding of depleted inventories are the main drivers in the positive outlook. The [...]

Economic Outlook – 13 September 2020 2020-09-14T10:29:56+00:00

Economic Outlook – 6 September 2020

2020-09-11T05:26:04+00:00

US As largely expected, the American economy continued to churn out jobs last month, albeit at a slower rate than in June and July. In­deed, August saw a total of 1.4 million net new jobs added, down from 1.7 million in July. Overall, nonfarm employ­ment is about 7.6% below where it was in February. The [...]

Economic Outlook – 6 September 2020 2020-09-11T05:26:04+00:00

August 2020

Economic Outlook – 30 August 2020

2020-09-11T05:26:09+00:00

US The Federal Reserve has decided a chance of tack is necessary. Nothing too revolutionary of course, but a recognition that it should be more concerned with employment undershooting its goal than outperforming it. At the same time, having con­sistently over-predicted the future path of inflation over the past decade, it has come to the [...]

Economic Outlook – 30 August 2020 2020-09-11T05:26:09+00:00

Economic Outlook – 23 August 2020

2020-09-11T05:30:02+00:00

US Both housing starts and existing home sales trounced market forecasts in July, rising by 22.6% and 24.7% month-on-month, respectfully. Starts are now just 7.0% below their pre-pandemic peak (January), while exist­ing home sales are 8.0% above January levels. The housing market has been a bright spot for the US economy during this pandemic. Record-low [...]

Economic Outlook – 23 August 2020 2020-09-11T05:30:02+00:00

Economic Outlook – 16 August 2020

2020-09-11T05:30:30+00:00

US Inflation, as measured by the Consumer Price Index, rebounded more sharply than ex­pected. Core inflation rose 0.6% month-over-month, the largest jump since 1991. The move was largely due to price hikes in areas that had seen significant discounting earlier in the pandemic, like motor vehicle insurance and airline fares. The acceleration in price growth [...]

Economic Outlook – 16 August 2020 2020-09-11T05:30:30+00:00