US The front-end of the yield curve inverted last week, with two- and three-year Treasury yields rising above the five-year yield.Given that many analysts view an inversion as an omen for an economic downturn, the inversion brought heightened sensitivity among markets to the increased probability of a recession on the horizon. It is to be [...]
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US The US Federal Reserve has seemingly been on autopilot for the past two years, raising rates on a quarterly basis except in September 2017, when it announced plans to shrink the balance sheet. But minutes of the November meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee released this week indicate the Fed might switch off [...]
US The biggest surprise last week in the US was the eight point drop in the National Association of Homebuilders (NAHB)/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index in November. This month’s plunge to 60 was the largest drop since February 2014, with declines in both builders’ assessment of current sales and future sales expectations indices. The expected [...]
US The third quarter print of the US GDP data dominated an otherwise slow week of economic data. Real GDP topped consensus expectations and grew a solid 3.5% in Q3. The outturn represents a modest downshift from the 4.2% registered in Q2; however, the US economy continues to grow at a strong rate that is [...]
US The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) voted unanimously this week to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 2.0% to 2.25%, a decision widely anticipated by market participants. As this was the final FOMC meeting without a press conference, attention was focused squarely on the policy statement, which delivered few surprises. [...]
US US personal spending rose a solid 0.4% in September, consistent with the robust pace of consumption reported in last week’s Q3 GDP release. Spending was driven by a surge in durables, which, at least in part, was due to replacement demand after Hurricane Florence. The FED’s preferred gauge of inflation, the PCE deflator, came [...]
US US real GDP topped consensus expectations and grew a solid 3.5% in Q3. The outturn represents a modest downshift from the 4.2% registered in Q2; however, the US economy continues to grow at a strong rate that is likely above the long-run potential rate. However, the recent solid pace of expansion will likely lead [...]
US US retail sales fell short of expectations and rose 0.1% in September, primarily due to slower sales at gas stations and bars and restaurants, which dipped 0.8% and 1.8%, respectively. However, control group sales, which feed into GDP and exclude volatile categories like auto, gas and building materials, came in better than expected, increasing [...]
US In the US, producer prices rose 0.2% in September, but moderated to 2.6% on a year-on-year basis. The gain was led in large part by services, up 0.3% month-on-month, as transportation and warehousing prices rose a whopping 1.8%. This caused core inflation (which excludes food, energy and trade services) to grow a larger-than-expected 0.4%. [...]
US Fed Chairman Jerome Powell has used a variety of superlatives to express his pleasure with the current state of the US economy. Powell believes the economy is in a good place, with exceptionally low unemployment and inflation close to target. With inflation expectations in check, the Fed continues to believe it can gradually nudge [...]