US The Fed appears increasingly likely to hit the “pause” button in March amid financial market volatility, trade uncertainty and an overall moderation in economic growth. In a speech this week, Fed Chairman Powell reemphasized that the Fed would exercise patience and watch the economic data carefully, a sentiment that was echoed by Fed Vice [...]
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US The production side of the US economy has slowed considerably, pulling down commodity prices and business confidence. December’s ISM Manufacturing survey tumbled 5.2 points to 54.1, the largest one-month drop in more than a decade. The drop in the headline index was driven primarily by an 11-point plunge in the new orders component, which [...]
US The relative lack of concern on the part of US Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell surrounding the recent downdraft in risk asset markets during his post rate-hike conference on Wednesday sent markets tumbling to fresh 2018 lows. While noting the Fed is no longer on a preset course of quarterly rates hikes, he did [...]
US US consumers are catching a break on inflation just in time for the holiday shopping season. After rising for seven straight months, the consumer price index was unchanged in November. Lower prices at the pump thanks to oil prices tumbling have led to an easing in inflation. After increasing2.9% on a year-on-year basis as [...]
US The front-end of the yield curve inverted last week, with two- and three-year Treasury yields rising above the five-year yield.Given that many analysts view an inversion as an omen for an economic downturn, the inversion brought heightened sensitivity among markets to the increased probability of a recession on the horizon. It is to be [...]
US The US Federal Reserve has seemingly been on autopilot for the past two years, raising rates on a quarterly basis except in September 2017, when it announced plans to shrink the balance sheet. But minutes of the November meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee released this week indicate the Fed might switch off [...]
US The biggest surprise last week in the US was the eight point drop in the National Association of Homebuilders (NAHB)/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index in November. This month’s plunge to 60 was the largest drop since February 2014, with declines in both builders’ assessment of current sales and future sales expectations indices. The expected [...]
US The third quarter print of the US GDP data dominated an otherwise slow week of economic data. Real GDP topped consensus expectations and grew a solid 3.5% in Q3. The outturn represents a modest downshift from the 4.2% registered in Q2; however, the US economy continues to grow at a strong rate that is [...]
US The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) voted unanimously this week to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 2.0% to 2.25%, a decision widely anticipated by market participants. As this was the final FOMC meeting without a press conference, attention was focused squarely on the policy statement, which delivered few surprises. [...]
US US personal spending rose a solid 0.4% in September, consistent with the robust pace of consumption reported in last week’s Q3 GDP release. Spending was driven by a surge in durables, which, at least in part, was due to replacement demand after Hurricane Florence. The FED’s preferred gauge of inflation, the PCE deflator, came [...]