US Retail sales improved by 0.3% in October, extending their winning streak to six months. The outturn, however, was below market expectations and a marked deceleration in the pace of gains from the 1.5% averaged in the three months prior. Within this slowing trend, there’s a noticeable shift toward online shopping. Sales at non-store retailers, [...]
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US Small business confidence was unchanged in October, although business owners are clearly concerned about the future path of economic policy. The uncertainty index jumped to 98.0 in October, near a record high. The election uncertainty will fade, but the recent spike in COVID cases and what that is likely to mean for customer engagement [...]
US October NFP (nonfarm payrolls) showed another month of solid gains. The improvement in the unemployment rate was even more impressive, falling a full percentage point to 6.9% from 7.9%. Just as encouraging, the report showed a rebound in the labor force participation rate and decline in the permanent job losses. These have been rising [...]
US The American economy rebounded sharply in Q3 following one of the steepest contractions on record in Q2. Economic growth accelerated at a 33.1% annualized pace, recovering about two-thirds of the activity lost in the first half of the year. Overall, real GDP is still 3.5% below where it was at the end of 2019. [...]
US The September existing home sales report reinforced the notion that the housing market remains a bright spot, even as most sectors of the economy continue to struggle under the weight of the pandemic. After gains moderated in the two months prior, resale activity surged by 9.4% in September, blowing expectations out of the water. [...]
US The latest inflation report should quiet the stagflation chatter that had emerged after a couple of hot months for core inflation. Both headline and core CPI rose a middling 0.2% in the month of September. However, removing an outsized 6.7% month-on-month increase in used vehicle prices leaves core inflation flat on the month. During [...]
US The Federal Reserve Chair Powell made a strong case for additional fiscal support in a speech last week. He noted that despite the rebound seen so far, the economy is still in a precarious state. Any slowing in the pace of recovery at this stage risks triggering “typical recessionary dynamics, as weakness feeds on [...]
US The release of employment data for the month of September showed ongoing, albeit decelerating progress in the labor market recovery. Indeed, 661,000 payroll jobs were added last month, down from 1.5 million in August. Overall, 51.5% of non-farm payrolls lost since the pandemic began have been recovered. The unemployment rate fell from 8.4% to [...]
US Existing home sales rose by 2.4% in August to 6.0 million units (annualized), which marked another post-Great Recession record. The improvement spanned both single and multi-family segments and all four Census regions, though gains in the latter were concentrated in Northeast (13.8%). Meanwhile, in part due to a low inventory backdrop, home price growth [...]
US The Federal Reserve indicated that there will be no interest rate increase until at least end of 2023 and will not tighten policy until inflation is higher than 2% for “some time”, a move away from its previous policy goal of “maximum employment” and “symmetric 2% inflation”. This announcement makes the Fed’s desire to [...]