US CPI inflation is beginning to heat up more materially. Core prices rose 0.3% for the third straight month, pushing the three-month annualised inflation rate to a 13-year high. The year-on-year rate hit 2.4%, which suggests PCE inflation (which tends to run about 0.3% below CPI inflation) may finally be at the Fed’s target. A [...]
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US The ISM manufacturing index fell below 50 in August for the first time since 2016, as more firms reported a contraction than an expansion in manufacturing activity. The decline in the new orders subcomponent was even more worrisome. At 47.2, new orders tied the cycle low set in 2012, and suggests activity will remain [...]
US The second estimate of Q2 2019 GDP showed the economy grew at a 2.0% annualised pace, which was only a tenth lower than the initial estimate, most likely the consumer carried the weight in the second quarter. But revised data show personal consumption expenditures rose an even stronger 4.7% (4.3% previously), adding 3.1 percentage [...]
US The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note jumped at the start of trading last Monday but later decreased sharply to end the week modestly lower. On Thursday, the yield curve again inverted, with two-year Treasury yields moving above 10-year yields, a closely watched (but not foolproof) indicator of a coming recession. The inversion [...]
US The spread between the US two-year Treasury note and the 10-year note fell below zero for a time this week, setting of a recession warning bells. However, the inversion is not yet persistent, and in the past five such episodes the onset of recession averaged 22 months after inversion. Global bond yields continue to [...]
US Markets opened on Monday to news that China’s onshore USD/CNY exchange rate traded beyond the symbolic 7.00 per dollar for the first time in more than 10 years. This occurred in the wake of President Trump tweeting on August 1 that, “…the US will start, on September 1, putting a small additional Tariff of [...]
US The Fed cut rates for the first time since December 2008, lowering the fed funds rate 25 bps to 2.25% in a move widely telegraphed by Fed officials and wholly anticipated by financial markets. Attention was more focused on the Fed’s next move, and whether or not 25 bps would be sufficient to “sustain [...]
US Employers added 224K jobs in June. That pushed the three-month average up to 171K, but the 172K average over the first six months of this years is down substantially from the 211K average the prior six months. The unemployment rate edged back up to 3.7%, and wage growth came in a touch weaker than [...]
US The US Commerce Department reported last week that durable goods orders declined 1.3% in May, surpassing consensus expectations for a scant 0.3% decline.The good news: Taking the May decline at face value likely overstates the weakness of factory activity in May. Boeing’s ongoing struggles with its 737 MAX fleet of aircraft were largely to [...]
US The Fed kept rates unchanged last week but opened the door to easing later this year by noting the heightened uncertainty to the economic outlook and the persistent undershoot of inflation. Seven committee members expected the year-end Fed funds rate to be 50 bps lower, one expected it to be 25 bps lower and [...]