Economic Outlook

April 2021

Economic Outlook – 18 April 2021

2021-04-19T16:08:20+00:00

USA • In March, housing starts rose 19.4% to a 15-year high of 1,739K (seasonally adjusted and annualized), exceeding by far the median economist forecast of 1,613K. Adding to the good news, the prior month’s result was revised up from 1,421K to 1,457K. The increase in March was driven by the multifamily category, where starts [...]

Economic Outlook – 18 April 2021 2021-04-19T16:08:20+00:00

Economic Outlook – 11 April 2021

2021-04-11T18:55:00+00:00

USA • The goods and services deficit widened US$3.3 billion to US$71.1 billion. Overall, trade activity was soft, with goods imports and exports sinking 3.5% (US$4.8 billion) and 0.9% (US$2.0 billion), respectively. In the service sector, exports sagged US$0.2 billion while imports rose US$0.3 billion. In light of many industry surveys reporting that widespread supply [...]

Economic Outlook – 11 April 2021 2021-04-11T18:55:00+00:00

Economic Outlook – 28 March 2021

2021-04-02T08:31:02+00:00

• Global supply chains have been strained for over a year due to disruptions and bottlenecks caused by the coronavirus, and this week's grounding of a massive container ship in the Egypt's Suez Canal has only added to the problem. As much as 12% of the world's seaborne trade has been halted by the accident, [...]

Economic Outlook – 28 March 2021 2021-04-02T08:31:02+00:00

March 2021

Economic Outlook – 22 March 2021

2021-03-23T19:41:22+00:00

US • Retail sales fell 3.0% month-on-month in February after gaining a revised 7.6% in January (up from an earlier 5.3% estimate). The decline was broad based but for two exceptions. o Sales were flat at food and beverage stores and increased at gas stations (3.6%). o The control measure, which excludes sales at food [...]

Economic Outlook – 22 March 2021 2021-03-23T19:41:22+00:00

Economic Outlook – 14 March 2021

2021-03-15T09:16:31+00:00

US • The Consumer Price Index rose 0.4% in February after climbing 0.3% the prior month. The result was in line with consensus expectations. o The energy component sprang 3.9% thanks in part to a 6.4% jump in the gasoline segment. o The cost of food, meanwhile, rose 0.2% on a 0.3% increase in the [...]

Economic Outlook – 14 March 2021 2021-03-15T09:16:31+00:00

Economic Outlook – 7 March 2021

2021-03-07T19:03:24+00:00

US • Nominal personal income spiked 10.0% in January as American households received the aid cheques included in the USD$900 billion stimulus package signed at the end of Donald Trump’s presidency. o Income derived from government transfers surged 52.6% to USD$5,734.1 billion (seasonally adjusted at annual rates) on a massive gain in the “other” transfer [...]

Economic Outlook – 7 March 2021 2021-03-07T19:03:24+00:00

February 2021

Economic Outlook – 28 February 2021

2021-02-28T18:37:06+00:00

US • Nominal personal income spiked 10.0% in January as American households received the aid cheques included in the USD$900-billion stimulus package signed at the end of Donald Trump’s presidency. o Income derived from government transfers surged 52.6% to USD$5,734.1 billion (seasonally adjusted at annual rates) on a massive gain in the “other” transfer segment [...]

Economic Outlook – 28 February 2021 2021-02-28T18:37:06+00:00

Economic Outlook – 21 February 2021

2021-02-22T09:39:15+00:00

US The Markit flash composite PMI came in at 58.8 in February (vs. 58.7 the prior month), signalling the broadest improvement in private-sector activity in almost 6 years. The degree of optimism towards future output remained very high, with rollouts of vaccines acting as a confidence booster.The manufacturing sub-index edged down from 59.2 to 58.5, [...]

Economic Outlook – 21 February 2021 2021-02-22T09:39:15+00:00

Economic Outlook – 14 February 2021

2021-02-14T18:56:52+00:00

US The Consumer Price Index increased 0.3% in January, in line with consensus expectations. It had climbed 0.2% each of the two previous months.The energy component sprang 3.5% thanks in part to a 7.4% jump in the gasoline segment.The cost of food rose 0.1% on a 0.3% advance in the “food away from home” category.The [...]

Economic Outlook – 14 February 2021 2021-02-14T18:56:52+00:00

Economic Outlook – 7 February 2021

2021-02-07T18:31:18+00:00

US January nonfarm payrolls rose 49K, less than the +105K print expected by consensus. The negative surprise was compounded by a 159K downward revision to the prior months’ results.The private sector added 6K jobs in January.Goods sector employment edged down 4K as a gain in the mining/logging segment (+9K) was more than offset by small [...]

Economic Outlook – 7 February 2021 2021-02-07T18:31:18+00:00