Economic Outlook

January 2021

Economic Outlook – 24 January 2021

2021-01-24T18:55:46+00:00

US The Consumer Price Index increased 0.4% in December after climbing 0.2% the prior month. The energy index sprang 4.0% month-on-month thanks in large part to an 8.4% jump in the gasoline segment. The cost of food, meanwhile, progressed 0.4% on advances for both “food away from home” (+0.4%) and “food at home” (+0.4%). The [...]

Economic Outlook – 24 January 2021 2021-01-24T18:55:46+00:00

Economic Outlook – 17 January 2021

2021-01-17T15:49:39+00:00

US The Consumer Price Index increased 0.4% in December after climbing 0.2% the prior month. This result was in line with consensus expectations.The energy index sprang 4.0% month-on-month thanks in large part to an 8.4% jump in the gasoline segment.The cost of food, meanwhile, progressed 0.4% on advances for both “food away from home” (+0.4%) [...]

Economic Outlook – 17 January 2021 2021-01-17T15:49:39+00:00

Economic Outlook – 10 January 2021

2021-01-10T21:02:23+00:00

US The December nonfarm payrolls fell 140K, a result much worse than the +50K print expected by consensus. The negative surprise was partially offset by a 135K upward revision to the prior month’s results. The private sector shed 95K jobs while employment in the public sector dropped 45K. Without wishing to minimize the losses suffered [...]

Economic Outlook – 10 January 2021 2021-01-10T21:02:23+00:00

December 2020

Economic Outlook – 20 December 2020

2020-12-20T18:55:11+00:00

US The November retail sales report came in a lot weaker than expected. After an impressive run of positive gains from May to September, consumer outlays decreased for the second month in a row, adding to signs that the US economic rebound is losing its spring amid the surging number of COVID-19 cases. The real [...]

Economic Outlook – 20 December 2020 2020-12-20T18:55:11+00:00

Economic Outlook – 13 December 2020

2020-12-13T06:30:48+00:00

US The Consumer Price Index rose 0.2% in November after holding steady the month before. The result overshot consensus expectations for a 0.1% print. Energy prices overall were up 0.4% month-on-month as lower gasoline prices (-0.4%) were more than offset by higher prices for electricity (+0.5%), gas (+3.1%) and fuel oil (+3.6%). The cost of [...]

Economic Outlook – 13 December 2020 2020-12-13T06:30:48+00:00

Economic Outlook – 6 December 2020

2020-12-06T21:21:31+00:00

US The ISM Manufacturing Index fell 1.8 points to a still strong 57.5 in November. The ISM is a diffusion index and measures the breadth of strength or weakness in the factory sector rather than the magnitude. Any reading above 50 means more manufacturers see conditions at their business improving rather than weakening. The forward-looking [...]

Economic Outlook – 6 December 2020 2020-12-06T21:21:31+00:00

November 2020

Economic Outlook – 29 November 2020

2020-11-29T21:18:10+00:00

US The Markit flash composite PMI came in at 57.9 in November  (56.3  in October),  signaling  the  broadest  improvement  in  private-sector  activity  since  March  2015. The degree  of  optimism  towards  future  output  sprang  to  its  highest  point  since  May  2014,  with  survey  respondents  citing  improved  hopes of a COVID-19 vaccine and an end to election [...]

Economic Outlook – 29 November 2020 2020-11-29T21:18:10+00:00

Economic Outlook – 22 November 2020

2020-11-22T21:42:44+00:00

US Retail sales improved by 0.3% in October, extending their winning streak to six months. The outturn, however, was below market expectations and a marked deceleration in the pace of gains from the 1.5% av­eraged in the three months prior. Within this slowing trend, there’s a noticeable shift toward online shopping. Sales at non-store retailers, [...]

Economic Outlook – 22 November 2020 2020-11-22T21:42:44+00:00

Economic Outlook – 15 November 2020

2020-11-15T22:06:16+00:00

US Small business confidence was unchanged in October, although business owners are clearly concerned about the future path of economic policy. The uncertainty index jumped to 98.0 in October, near a record high. The election uncertainty will fade, but the recent spike in COVID cases and what that is likely to mean for customer engagement [...]

Economic Outlook – 15 November 2020 2020-11-15T22:06:16+00:00

Economic Outlook – 8 November 2020

2020-11-08T18:47:14+00:00

US October NFP (nonfarm payrolls) showed another month of solid gains. The improvement in the unemploy­ment rate was even more impressive, falling a full percent­age point to 6.9% from 7.9%. Just as encouraging, the report showed a rebound in the labor force participation rate and decline in the permanent job losses. These have been rising [...]

Economic Outlook – 8 November 2020 2020-11-08T18:47:14+00:00