Economic Outlook

December 2019

Economic outlook – 1 December 2019

2019-12-03T10:31:42+00:00

US As the Thanksgiving holiday compressed the economic indicator schedule into the first half of the week, market attention remained squarely focused on the data performance in order to gauge the overall health of the US economy during the final months of 2019. With regards to the consumer, the landscape remains largely positive. Consumer confidence, [...]

Economic outlook – 1 December 2019 2019-12-03T10:31:42+00:00

November 2019

Economic Outlook – 24 November 2019

2019-11-24T20:50:59+00:00

US Minutes from the October FOMC meeting indicated the Fed is content to remain on the sidelines for the rest of this year as the looser financial conditions resulting from rate cuts at three consecutive meetings feed through to the economy. Committee members judged the current stance of monetary policy as “appropriate”, while recognizing that [...]

Economic Outlook – 24 November 2019 2019-11-24T20:50:59+00:00

Economic Outlook – 17 November 2019

2019-11-18T20:33:31+00:00

US Reverberations of slowing global growth and trade uncertainty have been most acutely felt in the factory sector, given newly imposed tariffs on a wide array of producer inputs and globally integrated supply chains. The weakness was on full display in October, as manufacturing production slipped 0.6%, the second straight monthly decline. Adding to their [...]

Economic Outlook – 17 November 2019 2019-11-18T20:33:31+00:00

Economic Outlook – 10 November 2019

2019-11-11T09:47:04+00:00

US The ISM non-manufacturing index, a measure of the breadth of activity in the US service sector, beat expectations last week by climbing to 54.7 from a three-year low of 52.6 last month. The multiyear low of the non-man survey was especially concerning last month because it came just two days after its manufacturing counterpart [...]

Economic Outlook – 10 November 2019 2019-11-11T09:47:04+00:00

Economic Outlook – 3 November 2019

2019-11-04T15:18:37+00:00

US US economy grew at a 1.9% annualized pace last quarter, slowing marginally from 2.0% recorded in the second quarter. Sectors centered on the domestic side of the economy, including consumer spending (+2.9%), residential investment (+5.1%), and government spending (+2%), all made positive contributions. US business investment declined for the second straight quarter (-3%), while [...]

Economic Outlook – 3 November 2019 2019-11-04T15:18:37+00:00

October 2019

Economic Outlook – 27 October 2019

2019-11-05T10:21:42+00:00

US The legitimate slowdown in overall economic growth is exaggerated by the continuing drag from Boeing’s issues with the 737 MAX and the lingering strike at General Motors. The effect from both was apparent in September’s advance durable goods report, which saw overall orders fall 1.1%. Orders for transportation equipment fell 1.6%, reflecting declines in [...]

Economic Outlook – 27 October 2019 2019-11-05T10:21:42+00:00

Economic Outlook – 20 October 2019

2019-10-20T20:51:16+00:00

US Personal consumption, which comprises roughly 70% of overall US GDP, has proved remarkably resilient under the cloud of trade uncertainty and the darkening economic picture overseas. However, retail sales fell in September for the first time in seven months. The 0.3% decline in headline sales was dragged down by a sharp drop in auto [...]

Economic Outlook – 20 October 2019 2019-10-20T20:51:16+00:00

Economic Outlook – 13 October 2019

2019-10-14T12:44:27+00:00

US The optimism among small businesses took another leg down in September, with fewer businesses reporting that they expected sales and the economy to improve. At 101.8, the NFIB small business index is not quite as low as it was at the start of the year following the stock market’s sharp selloff and the longest [...]

Economic Outlook – 13 October 2019 2019-10-14T12:44:27+00:00

September 2019

Economic Outlook – 29 September 2019

2019-10-01T09:59:26+00:00

US Consumer Confidence fell by a larger than expected 9.1 points to a still respectable 125.1. Consumers grew more cautious about both the present situation and future conditions. The robust assessment of the labor market a month earlier was also completely reversed. The Conference Board’s survey was out of sync with the University of Michigan’s [...]

Economic Outlook – 29 September 2019 2019-10-01T09:59:26+00:00

Economic Outlook – 22 September 2019

2019-09-23T21:52:01+00:00

US An unusually divided Federal Open Market Committee cut its target rate a quarter point to between 1.75% and 2.0% and left the door open to additional cuts. Two members of the committee dissented, arguing rates should be left unchanged. One member voted for a deeper, half-point cut. US Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell offered [...]

Economic Outlook – 22 September 2019 2019-09-23T21:52:01+00:00