Economic Outlook

September 2022

Economic Outlook – 25 September 2022

2022-09-25T19:24:03+00:00

USA • The Federal Reserve hiked the target range for the federal funds rate 75 bps to 3%–3.25% and will continue to reduce its holdings of Treasuries via a quantitative tightening process, with monthly caps doubling as previously telegraphed. The interest rate on reserve balances increased an equivalent 75 bps to 3.15%. There were no [...]

Economic Outlook – 25 September 2022 2022-09-25T19:24:03+00:00

Economic Outlook – 18 September 2022

2022-09-20T12:28:21+00:00

USA • In August, the Consumer Price Index belied consensus expectations by ticking up instead of down. This came after a flat print the prior month. Prices in the energy segment fell 5.0% on declines for gasoline (-10.6%) and fuel oil (-5.9%), but these were partially offset by an increase for utility gas services (+3.5%). [...]

Economic Outlook – 18 September 2022 2022-09-20T12:28:21+00:00

Economic Outlook – 11 September 2022

2022-09-13T08:26:52+00:00

USA • The short week following the Labor Day holiday was a relatively quiet one for U.S. economic data, sandwiched between last week's employment report and next week's critical CPI release. On Tuesday, the ISM services index topped expectations. The index registered a robust 56.9 reading, and the subcomponents were equally encouraging. Both the business [...]

Economic Outlook – 11 September 2022 2022-09-13T08:26:52+00:00

Economic Outlook – 4 September 2022

2022-09-04T17:44:38+00:00

USA • The S&P Global flash composite PMI sank from 47.7 in July to 45.0 in August, marking a second consecutive contraction in private-sector activity and the sharpest since May 2020. Outside of the pandemic period, this was also the lowest reading recorded in data going back to 2009. New orders fell the most in [...]

Economic Outlook – 4 September 2022 2022-09-04T17:44:38+00:00

August 2022

Economic Outlook – 28 August 2022

2022-08-29T13:22:06+00:00

USA • The S&P Global flash composite PMI sank from 47.7 in July to 45.0 in August, marking a second consecutive contraction in private-sector activity and the sharpest since May 2020. Outside of the pandemic period, this was also the lowest reading recorded in data going back to 2009. New orders fell the most in [...]

Economic Outlook – 28 August 2022 2022-08-29T13:22:06+00:00

July 2022

Economic Outlook – 10 July 2022

2022-07-10T18:47:59+00:00

USA • Nonfarm payrolls rose 372K in June, a lot more than the +265K pint expected by consensus. This positive surprise was partly offset by a 74K downward revision to the previous months’ results. Employment in the goods sector jumped 48K, with gains in manufacturing (+29K), construction (+13K) and, to a lesser, extent, mining/logging (+6K). [...]

Economic Outlook – 10 July 2022 2022-07-10T18:47:59+00:00

Economic Outlook – 3 July 2022

2022-07-06T15:33:22+00:00

USA • Consumer prices measured by the PCE deflator rose another 0.6% in May, lifting the annual rate back up a touch to 6.35% from 6.29% previously. Elevated and persistent price pressures have dramatically weighed on real disposable personal income, which is now about 5.4% below where it would be implied by its trend in [...]

Economic Outlook – 3 July 2022 2022-07-06T15:33:22+00:00

June 2022

Economic Outlook – 26 June 2022

2022-06-29T06:33:11+00:00

USA • Markit’s flash composite PMI cooled from 53.6 in May to a 5-month low of 51.2 in June. While still above the 50-point mark separating expansion from contraction, this result was the second weakest since July 2020, when the economy was emerging from a pandemic-induced lockdown. New orders across the private sector were the [...]

Economic Outlook – 26 June 2022 2022-06-29T06:33:11+00:00

Economic Outlook – 12 June 2022

2022-06-13T16:45:35+00:00

USA • The Consumer Price Index rose 1.0% MoM in May, a lot more than the already solid +0.7% print expected by consensus. This came after a 0.3% increase the prior month. Prices in the energy segment jumped 3.9% in May on steep gains for gasoline (+4.1%), fuel oil (+16.9%) and gas utility (+8.0%). The [...]

Economic Outlook – 12 June 2022 2022-06-13T16:45:35+00:00

Economic Outlook – 5 June 2022

2022-06-05T18:06:23+00:00

USA • Retail sales increased 0.9% in April on top of an upwardly revised gain of 1.4% in March. The April increase in sales could not be entirely attributed to higher prices. Overall consumer prices increased 0.3% in April, but goods prices fell 0.3% in the month • Nonfarm payrolls rose 390K in May, more [...]

Economic Outlook – 5 June 2022 2022-06-05T18:06:23+00:00