Economic Outlook

May 2022

Economic Outlook – 15 May 2022

2022-05-16T18:39:12+00:00

USA • The Consumer Price Index rose 0.3% MoM in April, slightly more than the +0.2% print expected by consensus. This came after a 1.2% increase in March, the biggest monthly jump since September 2005. Prices in the energy segment cooled 2.7% in April as a 6.1% drop for gasoline was only partially offset by [...]

Economic Outlook – 15 May 2022 2022-05-16T18:39:12+00:00

Economic Outlook – 8 May 2022

2022-05-10T04:20:32+00:00

USA • Nonfarm payrolls rose 428K in April, more than the +380K print expected by consensus. This positive surprise was partly offset by a 39K downward revision of previous months’ results. Employment in the goods sector jumped 66K, with gains in manufacturing (+55K) mining/logging (+9K) and, to a lesser extent, construction (+2K). Services-producing industries, meanwhile, [...]

Economic Outlook – 8 May 2022 2022-05-10T04:20:32+00:00

Economic Outlook – 1 May 2022

2022-05-03T08:58:07+00:00

USA • First quarter GDP was the disappointing marquee release this week, but there were plenty of silver linings. The consensus was for weak, but still positive, growth. Instead, the U.S. economy retreated by 1.4% annualized, after booming 6.9% in the fourth quarter of 2021. The unexpected retrenchment was largely due to a widening trade [...]

Economic Outlook – 1 May 2022 2022-05-03T08:58:07+00:00

April 2022

Economic Outlook – 24 April 2022

2022-04-24T18:54:28+00:00

USA • Markit’s flash composite PMI signaled a strong, but slower increase in business activity across the private sector in April. The headline index came in at 55.1, down from 57.7 the month before. The manufacturing sector tracker advanced from 58.8 to a 7-month high of 59.7 as the rate of increase of both output [...]

Economic Outlook – 24 April 2022 2022-04-24T18:54:28+00:00

Economic Outlook – 10 April 2022

2022-04-11T21:58:14+00:00

USA • The Federal Reserve published the minutes of its two-day policy meeting held March 15-16. All eyes were on the Fed's roadmap for future monetary policy tightening. About quantitative tightening (QT), the Fed mentioned that “it would be appropriate to begin this process at a coming meeting, possibly as soon as in May”. All [...]

Economic Outlook – 10 April 2022 2022-04-11T21:58:14+00:00

Economic Outlook – 3 April 2022

2022-04-05T20:15:15+00:00

USA • Nonfarm payrolls rose 431K in March, slightly less than the +490K print expected by consensus. A sizeable upward revision to the prior months’ results (+95K) more than compensated for that miss. Employment in the goods segment jumped 60K, with gains in manufacturing (+38K) and construction (+19K). Services-producing industries, meanwhile, expanded payrolls by 366K, [...]

Economic Outlook – 3 April 2022 2022-04-05T20:15:15+00:00

March 2022

Economic Outlook – 27 March 2022

2022-03-28T22:00:01+00:00

USA • Markit’s flash composite PMI signaled a further recovery from January’s Omicron-induced slowdown. The headline index came in at 58.5 in March, up from 55.9 the month before and its highest mark since July. The manufacturing sector tracker jumped from 57.3 to 58.5 as output benefited from healthy job creation and less severe supply [...]

Economic Outlook – 27 March 2022 2022-03-28T22:00:01+00:00

Economic Outlook – 20 March 2022

2022-03-23T10:03:07+00:00

USA • Retail sales edged up 0.3% in February, a result roughly in line with consensus expectations (+0.4%). The previous month’s print, meanwhile, was revised from +3.8% to +4.9%. Sales of motor vehicles and parts advanced 0.8% but remained 4.3% below last April’s all-time high. Without autos, sales crept up 0.2% as gains for gasoline [...]

Economic Outlook – 20 March 2022 2022-03-23T10:03:07+00:00

Economic Outlook – 13 March 2022

2022-03-13T21:59:57+00:00

USA • The Consumer Price Index rose a consensus-matching 0.8% MoM in February after climbing 0.6% the prior month. The energy component advanced 3.5%, with strong gains for fuel oil (+7.7%), gasoline (+6.6%), and utility gas services (+1.5%). The cost of food, meanwhile, sprang 1.0%. The core CPI, which excludes food and energy, met consensus [...]

Economic Outlook – 13 March 2022 2022-03-13T21:59:57+00:00

Economic Outlook – 6 March 2022

2022-03-06T20:20:51+00:00

USA • The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics surprised the market with 678k jobs created in February, well above 400k anticipated by forecasters. This was on top of an upward revision of 92k to December and January. The unemployment rate fell to 3.8 % – the lowest reading since the pandemic, just 0.3 %age points [...]

Economic Outlook – 6 March 2022 2022-03-06T20:20:51+00:00