Economic Outlook

January 2023

Economic Outlook – 29 January 2023

2023-01-30T16:03:02+00:00

USA The Bureau of Economic Analysis put out its first estimate of Q4 GDP growth. The economy reportedly expanded 2.9% annualized in the quarter, a bit more than the median economist forecast calling for a +2.6% print. This gain hoisted economic output 5.1% above its pre-COVID level and reduced the output gap to only 0.5%. Domestic [...]

Economic Outlook – 29 January 2023 2023-01-30T16:03:02+00:00

Economic Outlook – 22 January 2023

2023-01-23T09:33:22+00:00

USA Retail sales were down 1.1% in December. Economists were expecting them to decline 0.9%. Adding to the disappointment, November’s sales growth was revised down from -0.6% to -1.0%. Sales of motor vehicles/parts contributed negatively to the headline print, contracting 1.2%. Without autos, retail outlays retreated 1.1% as small gains for building materials (+0.3%) and sporting [...]

Economic Outlook – 22 January 2023 2023-01-23T09:33:22+00:00

Economic Outlook – 15 January 2023

2023-01-14T16:38:00+00:00

USA The Consumer Price Index edged down 0.1% in December, the indicator’s first decline in five months. The result was in line with consensus expectations. Prices in the energy segment dropped 4.5% as declines for fuel oil (-16.6%) and gasoline (-9.4%) were only partially offset by a 3.0% gain for utility gas services. The cost of [...]

Economic Outlook – 15 January 2023 2023-01-14T16:38:00+00:00

Economic Outlook – 8 January 2023

2023-01-11T20:21:16+00:00

USA Nonfarm payrolls rose 223K in December, slightly more than the +203K print expected by consensus. Compensating for this positive surprise, the previous month’s data were revised downward a cumulative 28K. Taking these revisions into account, nonfarm payrolls were roughly in line with expectations and signaled weaker, albeit still healthy, job gains. Employment in the goods [...]

Economic Outlook – 8 January 2023 2023-01-11T20:21:16+00:00

December 2022

Economic Outlook – 18 December 2022

2022-12-18T19:40:29+00:00

USA   The Consumer Price Index and Federal Open Market Committee meeting took center stage. Headline CPI surprised to the downside, rising just 0.1% in November. On a YoY basis, consumer price growth softened to 7.1%, down from 7.7% in October. Energy weighed on the overall index as gasoline prices slid 2.0% and energy services [...]

Economic Outlook – 18 December 2022 2022-12-18T19:40:29+00:00

Economic Outlook – 11 December 2022

2022-12-12T10:40:48+00:00

USA   The November release of the ISM services index kicked off the week with a surprisingly strong reading on the U.S. economy. The index rose 2.1 points to 56.5 despite consensus expectations for a roughly one-point decline. The outturn was higher than any of the 60 forecast estimates submitted to Bloomberg. The better-than-expected gain [...]

Economic Outlook – 11 December 2022 2022-12-12T10:40:48+00:00

Economic Outlook – 4 December 2022

2022-12-07T08:40:59+00:00

USA Fed Chair Jerome Powell spoke touching on many of the same hawkish themes that dominated the press conference after the November meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee, such as keeping rates at a high level for a considerable period. However, Powell acknowledged that the pace of rate hikes is likely to slow as soon [...]

Economic Outlook – 4 December 2022 2022-12-07T08:40:59+00:00

November 2022

Economic Outlook – 27 November 2022

2022-11-28T17:36:06+00:00

USA Durable goods orders jumped 1.0% in October, far more than the 0.4% increase expected by consensus. Orders in the transportation category sprang 2.1%, with gains in the defense aircraft (+21.7%), civilian aircraft (+7.4%), and vehicles and parts (+0.6%) segments. Excluding transportation, orders advanced 0.5% after retreating 0.9% in September. The report showed, also, that orders [...]

Economic Outlook – 27 November 2022 2022-11-28T17:36:06+00:00

Economic Outlook – 20 November 2022

2022-11-20T13:52:24+00:00

USA • Retail sales increased 1.3% in October, overshooting the +1.0% print expected by economists. There was no revision to the prior month’s flat line (+0.0%). Higher sales of motor vehicles and parts (+1.3%) contributed positively to the headline print in October. Without autos, retail outlays still advanced 1.3% on gains for gasoline stations (+4.1%), [...]

Economic Outlook – 20 November 2022 2022-11-20T13:52:24+00:00

Economic Outlook – 13 November 2022

2022-11-15T07:14:20+00:00

USA • There was some clear relief in consumer inflation in October, which is a welcome development for households and policymakers alike. The headline consumer price index rose "just" 0.4% during the month, which was below the Bloomberg consensus expectation for a 0.6% gain and caused the year-ago pace to fall back to 7.7%, or [...]

Economic Outlook – 13 November 2022 2022-11-15T07:14:20+00:00