Economic Outlook

May 2020

Economic Outlook – 24 May 2020

2020-05-25T03:59:37+00:00

US The latest jobless claims data did not provide much cause for optimism. Some 2.2 million people applied for regular state benefits in the week ended 16 May (on a non-seasonally adjusted basis). However, an increasing number of states have started to report the number of people applying for the Pandemic Unemployed Assistance (PUA) separately, [...]

Economic Outlook – 24 May 2020 2020-05-25T03:59:37+00:00

Economic Outlook – 17 May 2020

2020-05-18T08:11:54+00:00

US US Federal Reserve Chair Powell said that while the government's response to the coronavirus pandemic has been both timely and large, "it may not be the final chapter, given that the path ahead is both highly uncertain and subject to significant downside risks." Powell again ruled out the use of negative policy rates but [...]

Economic Outlook – 17 May 2020 2020-05-18T08:11:54+00:00

Economic Outlook – 10 May 2020

2020-05-10T18:41:00+00:00

US April nonfarm payrolls confirmed that the labor market is collapsing. By the survey week of 12 April, net employment had fallen by 20.5 million jobs, more than ten times larger than the previous worst month on record. COVID-19 wiped out nine years of job gains in a single month, as the 131 million Americans [...]

Economic Outlook – 10 May 2020 2020-05-10T18:41:00+00:00

Economic Outlook – 3 May 2020

2020-05-03T21:37:44+00:00

US An additional 3.8 million Americans filed for unemployment insurance, bringing total initial claims over the past six weeks to over 30 million. This dwarfs past recessions. With so many jobs lost and more at risk, consumers have cut back sharply on spending. Services spending accounts for over 45.0% of US GDP and is typically [...]

Economic Outlook – 3 May 2020 2020-05-03T21:37:44+00:00

April 2020

Economic Outlook – 26 April 2020

2020-04-26T22:29:43+00:00

US Oil prices went negative for the first time in history as the evaporation of demand collided with supply that literally cannot be shut off quickly enough. Specifically, the expiring front-month WTI contract price fell below zero, as holders of the security squirmed to avoid having to take physical delivery with oil storage space scarce [...]

Economic Outlook – 26 April 2020 2020-04-26T22:29:43+00:00

Economic Outlook – 19 April 2020

2020-04-23T12:52:18+00:00

US Retail sales plunged 8.7% in March, as a 26.0% surge in grocery store sales was drowned out by historic declines in both durable (furniture -27.0%, autos -26.0%) and nondurable (clothing -50.0%, restaurants -27.0%) discretionary spending. Even this understates the decline in personal consumption, as retail sales do not include hotel stays, airline or movie [...]

Economic Outlook – 19 April 2020 2020-04-23T12:52:18+00:00

Economic Outlook – 12 April 2020

2020-04-11T17:23:10+00:00

US The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index tumbled 8.1 points in March. This was the largest one-month drop in the index’s history. This drop, however, did not capture the full extent of the deterioration in business conditions that took place later that month. A special survey conducted by the NFIB found that most businesses only [...]

Economic Outlook – 12 April 2020 2020-04-11T17:23:10+00:00

Economic Outlook – 5 April 2020

2020-04-11T17:20:49+00:00

US Employers reported payrolls declined by 701K workers in March. This was much worse than expected, yet it only hints at what’s to come. The report “predated many coronavirus-related business and school closures that occurred in the second half of the month,” due to the timing of the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) survey (March [...]

Economic Outlook – 5 April 2020 2020-04-11T17:20:49+00:00

March 2020

Economic Outlook – 29 March 2020

2020-04-04T12:24:03+00:00

GENERAL: most of the data releases last week can be ignored as they are from before the spreading of the coronavirus. The data releases are in fact outdated since the economy is another place now. US In the US, beginning to be released are data incorporating the near-global shutdown of economic activity in recent weeks. [...]

Economic Outlook – 29 March 2020 2020-04-04T12:24:03+00:00

Economic Outlook – 22 March 2020

2020-04-04T12:17:55+00:00

GENERAL: most of the data releases last week can be ignored as they are from before the spreading of the coronavirus. The data releases are in fact outdated since the economy is another place now. US The government mandated closures of schools, bars, restaurants, gyms and movie theaters accelerated the shutdown and sent shockwaves through [...]

Economic Outlook – 22 March 2020 2020-04-04T12:17:55+00:00