US The spread between the US two-year Treasury note and the 10-year note fell below zero for a time this week, setting of a recession warning bells. However, the inversion is not yet persistent, and in the past five such episodes the onset of recession averaged 22 months after inversion. Global bond yields continue to [...]
US Markets opened on Monday to news that China’s onshore USD/CNY exchange rate traded beyond the symbolic 7.00 per dollar for the first time in more than 10 years. This occurred in the wake of President Trump tweeting on August 1 that, “…the US will start, on September 1, putting a small additional Tariff of [...]
US The Fed cut rates for the first time since December 2008, lowering the fed funds rate 25 bps to 2.25% in a move widely telegraphed by Fed officials and wholly anticipated by financial markets. Attention was more focused on the Fed’s next move, and whether or not 25 bps would be sufficient to “sustain [...]
US Employers added 224K jobs in June. That pushed the three-month average up to 171K, but the 172K average over the first six months of this years is down substantially from the 211K average the prior six months. The unemployment rate edged back up to 3.7%, and wage growth came in a touch weaker than [...]
US The US Commerce Department reported last week that durable goods orders declined 1.3% in May, surpassing consensus expectations for a scant 0.3% decline.The good news: Taking the May decline at face value likely overstates the weakness of factory activity in May. Boeing’s ongoing struggles with its 737 MAX fleet of aircraft were largely to [...]
US The Fed kept rates unchanged last week but opened the door to easing later this year by noting the heightened uncertainty to the economic outlook and the persistent undershoot of inflation. Seven committee members expected the year-end Fed funds rate to be 50 bps lower, one expected it to be 25 bps lower and [...]
US Most employment indicators continued to show a great deal of strength last week, including the latest JOLTS data and the weekly initial unemployment claims, which rose but remain near historic lows. The JOLTS survey noted that hires rose slightly to 5.9 million in April, while separations were essentially unchanged at 5.6 million. There were [...]
US US durable goods orders fell 2.1% during April. Orders have been influenced by volatile aircraft orders in recent months, and this was again the case. The grounding of the Boeing 737 MAX and subsequent negative headlines have led to net cancellations, which weighed heavily on April’s outcome. The civilian aircraft component of orders fell [...]
US US industrial production fell 0.5% in April. A drop in utilities output offset an increase in mining. The real sore spot in the report, however, was the 0.5% drop in manufacturing output. Consistent with softness at the retail level, auto production fell 2.6%, but just as weak was production of machinery - an ominous [...]
US The trade deficit widened slightly in March to $50.0 billion. Exports posted an increase for the third consecutive month, but imports jumped 1.1% after a measly gain in February and a drop in January. The widening does not look to be quite as large as the BEA estimated heading into the initial release of [...]
