USAThe Fed released the minutes of the 1 May meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee on Wednesday, and the readout was a good deal more hawkish than markets expected given the dovish tone Fed Chair Jerome Powell set in the press conference that followed the meeting, during which he seemingly took rate hikes off [...]
USAThe Consumer Price Index rose 0.3% in April, one tick short of the median economist forecast calling for a +0.4% print. This followed a 0.4% gain the prior month. Prices in the energy segment were up 1.1% as gains for gasoline (+2.8%) and fuel oil (+0.9%) were only partially offset by a 2.9% drop in [...]
USA First-time claims for unemployment insurance rose by 22K to 231K in the week ended May 4. That was not only more than the 212K figure consensus had baked-in, it also marks the highest level since August. Yet even at a nine-month high, the claims numbers are still low by historical standards. To smooth the [...]
USAMarkets breathed a sigh of relief on Friday morning as yields on US Treasuries tumbled after April nonfarm payrolls grew a less-than-expected 175,000. The number fell considerably short of the 240,000-consensus forecast, and the prior-two-months reading was revised down by 22,000. The unemployment rate rose to 3.9%, up 0.1% from March, while average hourly earnings [...]
USAAccording to the Bureau of Economic Analysis, real GDP expanded 1.6% annualized in 2024Q1, considerably less than the median economist forecast calling for a +2.5% print. As this gain was weaker than potential, the output gap narrowed from +0.8% to +0.3%. Year on year, real GDP was up 3.0%. Domes-tic demand grew at a healthy [...]
USARobust retail sales data were the main story on the U.S. economic data front this week. Retail sales handily exceeded expectations, rising 0.7% in March. Excluding autos, sales rose 1.1%, the biggest monthly pop in more than a year. The better-than-expected gain was further bolstered by sharp upward revisions to the data in February. Sizable [...]
USAThe Consumer Price Index rose 0.4% in March, one tick above the median economist forecast calling for a +0.3% print. This followed another 0.4% gain the prior month. Prices in the energy segment climbed 1.1% as gains for gasoline (+1.7%) and electricity (+0.9%) were only partially offset by a 1.3% decline for fuel oil. Prices [...]
USA Nonfarm payrolls rose 303K in March, a lot more than the median economist forecast calling for a +214K print. Adding to the news, the prior’s month data was revised upward a cumulative 22K. Employment in the goods sector rose 42K (the most in 14 months) on a steep gain in construction (+39K). Manufacturing [...]
USA The S&P Global Flash Composite PMI slipped from 52.5 in February to 52.2 in March, a level that nonetheless remains consistent with a healthy improvement in private sector operating conditions. New orders and output continued to expand, albeit at a slower pace than in the prior month. That did not prevent employment [...]
USAThe Consumer Price Index rose a consensus-matching 0.4% in February after climbing 0.3% the prior month. Prices in the energy segment rose 2.3%, on gains for gasoline (+3.8%), fuel oil (+1.1%), utility gas services (+2.3%), and electricity (+0.3%). The cost of food was unchanged month on month. The core CPI, which excludes food and energy, [...]
