Economic Outlook

September 2021

Economic Outlook – 19 September 2021

2021-09-19T15:10:16+00:00

USA • The Consumer Price Index advanced 0.3% MoM in August after climbing 0.5% the prior month. This result was slightly weaker than the +0.4% print expected by consensus. The energy component rose 2.0% thanks in part to a 2.8% gain in the gasoline segment. The cost of food, for its part, increased 0.4%. The [...]

Economic Outlook – 19 September 2021 2021-09-19T15:10:16+00:00

Economic Outlook – 12 September 2021

2021-09-14T09:13:39+00:00

USA • The Producer Price Index (PPI) for final demand jumped 0.7% MoM, one tick more than expected by consensus. This gain came in the wake of seven solid prints in January (+1.2%), February (+0.7%), March (+0.8%), April (+1.0%), May (+0.5%), June (+1.0%) and July (+1.0%). Goods prices rose 1.0% on a healthy gain for [...]

Economic Outlook – 12 September 2021 2021-09-14T09:13:39+00:00

Economic Outlook – 5 September 2021

2021-09-06T18:27:22+00:00

USA • Non-farm payrolls rose 235K in August, a lot less than the median economists forecast calling for a +733K print. Partially compensating for this disappointing result, the prior month’s results were upgraded by a sizeable 134K. The private sector added 243K jobs. Employment in the goods sector sprang 40K thanks to gains in manufacturing [...]

Economic Outlook – 5 September 2021 2021-09-06T18:27:22+00:00

Economic Outlook – 29 August 2021

2021-09-02T19:10:38+00:00

USA • Durable goods orders fell 0.1% to US$257.2 billion after swelling 0.8% and 3.2% in June and May, respectively. Orders for vehicles and parts rose US$2.96 billion or 5.8% to US$53.8 billion, a gain that was more than offset by a 48.9% decline (US$7.04 billion) in non-defence aircraft and parts orders to US$7.4 billion [...]

Economic Outlook – 29 August 2021 2021-09-02T19:10:38+00:00

August 2021

Economic Outlook – 22 August 2021

2021-08-23T10:53:45+00:00

USA • Retail sales fell 1.1% in July, more than the 0.3% drop expected by consensus. The negative surprise was only partially compensated by an upward revision to the prior month’s result from +0.6% to +0.7% • The employment report for July and healthy revisions to prior months marked a strong step toward the Fed's [...]

Economic Outlook – 22 August 2021 2021-08-23T10:53:45+00:00

Economic Outlook – 15 August 2021

2021-08-15T18:25:48+00:00

USA • According to the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey, the number of available jobs to be filled totaled 10.07 million as at the last business day of June, a new record high, up 590K from an upwardly revised 9.48 million in May. Job openings were up in all industries but manufacturing, with trade [...]

Economic Outlook – 15 August 2021 2021-08-15T18:25:48+00:00

Economic Outlook – 8 August 2021

2021-08-09T16:33:32+00:00

USA • The ISM manufacturing index for July came in slightly below expectations at 59.5, the first sub-60 headline reading since January. Below the headline, there was some indication that supply and demand were coming back into balance. Supplier deliveries fell to a five-month low of 72.5, as the pace of new orders eased 1.1 [...]

Economic Outlook – 8 August 2021 2021-08-09T16:33:32+00:00

July 2021

Economic Outlook – 11 July 2021

2021-07-12T17:54:09+00:00

USA • Nonfarm employment finally broke out to the upside, with employers adding 850,000 jobs in June. Revisions to the prior two months' data were fairly small, resulting in 15,000 more jobs. Job gains were fairly broad based during June, but the reopening of public schools at a time that they would normally be closing [...]

Economic Outlook – 11 July 2021 2021-07-12T17:54:09+00:00

Economic Outlook – 4 July 2021

2021-07-04T20:28:23+00:00

USA • Nonfarm payrolls rose 850K in June, more than the +720K print expected by consensus. Adding to the good news, the prior months’ results were upgraded by 15K. The private sector added 662K jobs. Employment in the goods sector crept up 20K as a small decline for construction (-7K) was more than offset by [...]

Economic Outlook – 4 July 2021 2021-07-04T20:28:23+00:00

June 2021

Economic Outlook – 27 June 2021

2021-07-01T09:14:09+00:00

USA • Nominal personal income declined 2.0% in May, slightly better than consensus expectations calling for a 2.5% decline. The wage/salary component of income rose 0.8%, while disposable income dropped 2.3%. Nominal personal spending, meanwhile, was flat in the month, slightly worse than the median economist forecast calling for a +0.4% print. Adjusted for inflation, [...]

Economic Outlook – 27 June 2021 2021-07-01T09:14:09+00:00