USAThe FOMC launched a mildly hawkish contingency plan on the back of the significant setback in inflation's progress toward target during Q1. That verbal guidance was made concrete as the FOMC kept its policy rate unchanged at 5.25% to 5.5%. This is a huge contrast to the dovish signalling at the start of this year. [...]
USANonfarm payrolls rose 272K in May, a very sizeable beat versus the Bloomberg consensus projection of 180K. A slight offset to the stronger-than-expected print was a 10K downward revision to April’s reading with an additional 5K jobs were shaved from March’s data. Employment in goods-producing industries registered a 25K increase largely due to gains in [...]
USANominal personal income rose a consensus-matching 0.3% in the U.S. in April following a 0.5% increase the prior month. The wage/salary component of income advanced 0.2%, whereas income derived from government transfers rose 0.3%. Personal current taxes, meanwhile, jumped 0.9%. All this translated into a 0.2% increase in disposable income. Nominal personal spending, for [...]
USAThe Fed released the minutes of the 1 May meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee on Wednesday, and the readout was a good deal more hawkish than markets expected given the dovish tone Fed Chair Jerome Powell set in the press conference that followed the meeting, during which he seemingly took rate hikes off [...]
USAThe Consumer Price Index rose 0.3% in April, one tick short of the median economist forecast calling for a +0.4% print. This followed a 0.4% gain the prior month. Prices in the energy segment were up 1.1% as gains for gasoline (+2.8%) and fuel oil (+0.9%) were only partially offset by a 2.9% drop in [...]
USA First-time claims for unemployment insurance rose by 22K to 231K in the week ended May 4. That was not only more than the 212K figure consensus had baked-in, it also marks the highest level since August. Yet even at a nine-month high, the claims numbers are still low by historical standards. To smooth the [...]
USAMarkets breathed a sigh of relief on Friday morning as yields on US Treasuries tumbled after April nonfarm payrolls grew a less-than-expected 175,000. The number fell considerably short of the 240,000-consensus forecast, and the prior-two-months reading was revised down by 22,000. The unemployment rate rose to 3.9%, up 0.1% from March, while average hourly earnings [...]
USAAccording to the Bureau of Economic Analysis, real GDP expanded 1.6% annualized in 2024Q1, considerably less than the median economist forecast calling for a +2.5% print. As this gain was weaker than potential, the output gap narrowed from +0.8% to +0.3%. Year on year, real GDP was up 3.0%. Domes-tic demand grew at a healthy [...]
USARobust retail sales data were the main story on the U.S. economic data front this week. Retail sales handily exceeded expectations, rising 0.7% in March. Excluding autos, sales rose 1.1%, the biggest monthly pop in more than a year. The better-than-expected gain was further bolstered by sharp upward revisions to the data in February. Sizable [...]
USAThe Consumer Price Index rose 0.4% in March, one tick above the median economist forecast calling for a +0.3% print. This followed another 0.4% gain the prior month. Prices in the energy segment climbed 1.1% as gains for gasoline (+1.7%) and electricity (+0.9%) were only partially offset by a 1.3% decline for fuel oil. Prices [...]
