US The manufacturing recovery picked up momentum during the month, with the ISM index rising to 54.2. Underlying details of the manufacturing report paint a brighter picture than previous months as well. The service sector was widely expected to weaken in July amid the flare-up of new cases, but the rebranded ISM Services (formerly called [...]
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US The ISM non-manufacturing index posted a 11.7-point jump to 57.1 for June. The improvement was broad-based as 3 of the 5subcomponents (and 14 out of 18 industries), reported positive growth for the month. This data release is backward looking. With the pace of infections picking up in mid-June, these data will not capture the [...]
US During June, nonfarm payrolls rose by 4.8 million jobs, while the unemployment rate fell to 11.1%. Both were surprises to the upside. While this is certainly another step in the right direction, employment levels remain almost 10.0% below February peak. Initial jobless claims slightly fell to just over 1.4 million for the week ending [...]
US As lockdown restrictions associated with the coronavirus pandemic eased last month, Americans opened their wallets wider than ever before as their spending rose a record 8.2%. Personal income fell 4.2% on the month as massive government relief measures began to wane.The personal savings rate remains extremely elevated at 23.0% after reaching 32.0% in April. [...]
US Last week’s economic data offered mixed signals as to whether the economy will be able to manage a V shaped recovery. The Commerce Department reported a 17.7% surge in retail sales in May, better than double consensus expectations and the biggest gain in history, albeit one measured against the 23.3% cumulative decline over the [...]
US The Fed released the FOMC meeting minutes which reveled the participants’ similarly grim growth outlooks. This which showed most participants believed the Fed would keep the rate at the zero lower bound through at least 2022, hence reiterating the Fed’s dedication to supporting the economy through the crisis and its willingness to adjust policy [...]
US After a major deterioration in April, both of the ISM indices improved in May, with the weightier non-manufacturing index coming in better than expected. Despite the uptick, both indices are still in contractionary territory. US vehicles sales echoed a similar message, coming in a bit better than expected (up nearly 40.0% month-on-month), though at [...]
US The May consumer confidence report was one encouraging signal. Consumer confidence rose 0.9 points to 86.6 in May, after sharp, back-to-back monthly declines in March and April. Overall, the level of consumer confidence remains well-below readings from the past several years, but for now, it appears the free-fall in confidence has ended. The forward-looking [...]
US The latest jobless claims data did not provide much cause for optimism. Some 2.2 million people applied for regular state benefits in the week ended 16 May (on a non-seasonally adjusted basis). However, an increasing number of states have started to report the number of people applying for the Pandemic Unemployed Assistance (PUA) separately, [...]
US US Federal Reserve Chair Powell said that while the government's response to the coronavirus pandemic has been both timely and large, "it may not be the final chapter, given that the path ahead is both highly uncertain and subject to significant downside risks." Powell again ruled out the use of negative policy rates but [...]