US Employers reported payrolls declined by 701K workers in March. This was much worse than expected, yet it only hints at what’s to come. The report “predated many coronavirus-related business and school closures that occurred in the second half of the month,” due to the timing of the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) survey (March [...]
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GENERAL: most of the data releases last week can be ignored as they are from before the spreading of the coronavirus. The data releases are in fact outdated since the economy is another place now. US In the US, beginning to be released are data incorporating the near-global shutdown of economic activity in recent weeks. [...]
GENERAL: most of the data releases last week can be ignored as they are from before the spreading of the coronavirus. The data releases are in fact outdated since the economy is another place now. US The government mandated closures of schools, bars, restaurants, gyms and movie theaters accelerated the shutdown and sent shockwaves through [...]
GENERAL: Most of the data releases this week can be ignored as they are from before the spreading of the coronavirus. The data releases are in fact outdated since the economy is another place now. US Stocks suffered a week of historic losses as worries deepened about the impact of the novel coronavirus outbreak. The [...]
US The Federal Reserve cut interest rates by a half percentage last Tuesday, hours after a G7 teleconference in which officials vowed to coordinate policy. Other central banks cutting rates include the Bank of Canada, which also cut rates by a half percentage, and the Reserve Bank of Australia, which cut by a quarter-point. While [...]
US The bond market now expects almost four Fed rate cuts by the end of the year, but one might rightly wonder how lower short-term rates would alleviate supply chain disruptions and aversion to international travel. Prior to the last major financial market flare-up, in December 2018, one could make the case that short-term rates [...]
US Minutes from the January FOMC meeting indicate the coronavirus will not push the Fed to cut interest rates. Positive housing and manufacturing survey data last week supported that view. While trade tensions have receded markedly in recent months, the coronavirus has taken its place as the latest source of uncertainty plaguing businesses and investors. [...]
US Employers added another 225,000 workers to their payrolls in January, an outcome that exceeded expectations. Owing partly to the fact that more people are entering the labor force, the unemployment rate edged higher to a still-low 3.6%. Another drop in initial claims for unemployment insurance attests to the fact that the labor market remains [...]
US Growth in Q4 was boosted by a sizable 1.5 % contribution from net exports, as a modest increase in exports was offset by a steep decline in imports. The threat of additional tariffs in December likely led many importers to pull purchases forward into earlier in the year, which helps explain the dramatic decline. [...]
US The December existing home sales print rose a solid 3.6% to a 5.54 million-unit pace as the housing market renaissance continues. Lower mortgage rates have brought buyers back into the market, particularly in the South and West, where population and employment growth remain the strongest. The rebound in existing home sales follows a string [...]