USAThe trade deficit deepened from $70.8 billion (revised from $70.4 billion) to $84.4 billion in September. This was due to an increase in the goods trade deficit of $14.2 billion to $109.0 billion, which represents the largest goods deficit in a little over two years. The variation was little changed by the services surplus (from [...]
USA Real GDP expanded 2.8% annualised in the third quarter, a result roughly in line with the median economist forecast calling for a +2.9% print. As this was stronger than potential, the output gap widened from +2.4% to +2.6%, the widest it has been since 1978. Year on year, real GDP was up 2.7%. [...]
USAThe S&P Global Flash Composite PMI signalled yet another solid expansion in private sector activity in October, as it rose from 54.0 to 54.3. New orders (from 52.5 to 54.2) piled up at the fastest pace in 17 months but that did not prevent a modest decline in private sector employment. Inflation continued to ease [...]
USAThe Consumer Price Index rose 0.2% in September, more than the median economist forecast calling for a +0.1% print. This came in the wake of another 0.2% gain the prior month. Price in the energy segment fell 1.9% on declines for fuel oil (-6.0%) and gasoline (-4.1%). The sub-indices tracking the cost of electricity and [...]
USANonfarm Payrolls (NFP) rose 254K in September, a lot more than the median economist forecast calling for a +150K print. This positive surprise was compounded by a 72K cumulative positive revision to the prior months’ results. Employment in the goods sector rose 21K as a 25K gain in the construction segment was only partially offset [...]
USANominal personal income rose 0.2% in August, two ticks less than the median economist forecast calling for a +0.4% print. The wage/salary component of income moved up 0.5%, while income derived from government transfers edged up 0.1%. Personal current taxes, meanwhile, jumped 0.5%. All this translated into a 0.2% increase in disposable income.Nominal personal spending, [...]
USAAfter being negatively impacted by Hurricane Beryl in July (-0.9%), industrial production rebounded in August, increasing by 0.8%. Manufacturing output expanded 0.9% thanks in large part to a 9.8% jump in the motor vehicles/parts segment. Excluding autos, factory output rose a more subdued 0.3%. Among the main subcategories, primary metals (+3.2%) and electrical equipment (+2.0%) [...]
USA The Consumer Price Index rose a consensus-matching 0.2% in August. This came in the wake of another 0.2% increase the prior month. Price in the energy segment fell 0.8% on declines for gasoline (-0.6%), fuel oil (-1.9%), electricity (-0.7%) and piped gas services (-1.9%). The cost of food, meanwhile, edged up 0.1%. [...]
USANonfarm Payrolls (NFP) rose 142K in August, less than the median economist forecast calling for a +165K print. This negative surprise was compounded by an 86K cumulative negative revision to the prior months’ results. The consensus was that disappointing NFP in July had been partly due to temporary factors, notably Hurricane Beryl, which had kept [...]
USAThe second estimate of Q2 GDP growth came in at +3.0% in annualised terms, a beat above the consensus forecast calling for no change from the advance estimate (+2.8%). Headlines focused on the strength of personal consumption, which jumped to 2.9% from 2.3% in the advance estimate. There were upward revisions for both goods (durable [...]
