Weekly Economic Outlook

USANonfarm payrolls rose 114K in July, a long shot below the 175K Bloomberg consensus forecast and even further below a revised 179K increase in June. This downside surprise came alongside a 29K cumulative downwards revision [...]

USAThe Consumer Price Index dipped 0.1% in June instead of rising 0.1% as per consensus. This followed a flat reading the prior month. The core CPI, which excludes food and energy, edged up 0.1%. This [...]

USANFP (Nonfarm payrolls) rose 206K in May, more than the median economist forecast calling for a +190K print. However, this positive surprise was more than offset by a 111K cumulative negative revision to the prior [...]

USAThe third and final estimate of Q1 GDP growth came in at +1.4% in annualised terms, in line with economist survey expectations and a tick higher than the second estimate last month. Household consumption was [...]

USARetail sales edged up 0.1% in May, less than the +0.3% print expected by consensus. Adding to the disappointment, the prior month’s result was revised downward, from +0.0% to -0.2%. Sales of motor vehicles and [...]

USAThe FOMC launched a mildly hawkish contingency plan on the back of the significant setback in inflation's progress toward target during Q1. That verbal guidance was made concrete as the FOMC kept its policy rate [...]