France Snapshot December 2013 Fundamentals Update as at 12 December 2013 by Lorenzo Beriozza After some improvement earlier this year, French business surveys are again bucking the (timid) euro area improvement trend. In the past it was easier to register more optimistic views than the consensus on France –and the data have supported this, in the sense [...]
US Snapshot December 2013 Fundamentals Update as at 11 December 2013 by Lorenzo Beriozza US government budget negotiations will likely lead the market risks next week regarding the prospects of a deal just yet, and the real deadline is not until at least mid-January by which point a new funding agreement must be in place before [...]
FOMC Preview December 2013 Fundamentals Update as at 10 December 2013 by Lorenzo Beriozza The US, it is alleged, has fallen into “secular stagnation.” Not one but two academic heavyweights—Larry Summers and Paul Krugman —argue that to achieve full employment, the US needs not just low interest rates, but negative interest rates. If correct, investors [...]
FOMC Preview December 2013 Fundamentals Update as at 9 December 2013 by Lorenzo Beriozza With improved labor market data as a backdrop, market participants have pulled forward their expectations of an initial Fed taper. Given the equanimity with which the bond and equity markets absorbed the strong November employment report on Friday morning, it is [...]
EZ Deflation Fundamentals Update as at 5 December 2013 by Lorenzo Beriozza Relief that the EZ (Euro Zone) has finally exited recession has come with strong gains in equity markets across the region. After six consecutive quarters of declining output, investors are right to see some light on the horizon. They are also rightly impressed [...]
ECB Preview December 2013 Fundamentals Update as at 4 December 2013 by Lorenzo Beriozza ECB set to ease again, but not already in December Inflation will remain top of the agenda at this month’s ECB meeting and looking ahead it should lead to more stimulus from the ECB, but the meeting this Thursday 5 December [...]
UK Green Taxes Fundamentals Update as at 3 December 2013 by Lorenzo Beriozza The Chancellor’s Autumn Statement on 5 December comes at a time when things are falling into place. Growth is improving, inflation is falling back closer to target and government borrowing has fallen by more than expected. Hence the Autumn Statement will be [...]
December 2013 Equity Investment Outlook Fundamentals Update as at 28 November 2013 by Lorenzo Beriozza Risk assets have risen further over the course of November, as political wrangling over the economy in the US has receded in the rearview mirror, while economic data has been encouraging and the US third quarter earnings season has come [...]
US Capital Goods Fundamentals Update as at 27 November 2013 by Lorenzo Beriozza New orders of capital goods have not progressed at all in 2013. Both orders and shipments reached their peak at the start of the year and since then have gone sideways. Moreover, after factoring in the speed bump that orders and shipments [...]
EU CPI Fundamentals Update as at 26 November 2013 by Lorenzo Beriozza October HICP inflation was the lowest in four years. On a quarterly basis, it looks as if price levels will fall in Q4. Declines are rare and usually followed by a reversal the following quarter. Overall, we do not think the factors that [...]
