Economic Outlook

January 2024

Economic Outlook – 14 January 2024

2024-01-14T18:40:17+00:00

USA     The Consumer Price Index rose 0.3% in December, more than the median economist forecast calling for a +0.2% print. The index had edged up 0.1% the month before. Prices in the energy segment progressed 0.4% as declines in two categories—fuel oil (-5.5%) and utility gas services (-0.4%)—were more than offset by gains [...]

Economic Outlook – 14 January 2024 2024-01-14T18:40:17+00:00

Economic Outlook – 7 January 2024

2024-01-07T23:40:01+00:00

USANonfarm payrolls rose 216K in December, more than the median economist forecast calling for a +175K print. This positive surprise, however, was offset by a -71K cumulative revision to the previous months ‘data. Employment in the goods sector in December advanced 22K thanks in large part to a 17K gain in the construction sector on [...]

Economic Outlook – 7 January 2024 2024-01-07T23:40:01+00:00

December 2023

Economic Outlook – 17 December 2023

2023-12-20T07:12:47+00:00

USA       The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose just 0.1% in November, amounting to a 3.1% year-to-year upswing. The headline print was muted by a downdraft in gasoline prices and ongoing moderation in food costs. In contrast, firmer services prices continue to prop up core inflation. A 0.3% monthly uptick in core prices [...]

Economic Outlook – 17 December 2023 2023-12-20T07:12:47+00:00

Economic Outlook – 10 December 2023

2023-12-11T16:20:28+00:00

USA     Nonfarm payrolls rose 199K in November, more than the median economist forecast calling for a +185K print. This positive surprise was offset by a -35K cumulative revision to the previous thanks in large part to a 28K gain in the manufacturing sector. Construction payrolls also expanded (+2K), but only marginally. Jobs in [...]

Economic Outlook – 10 December 2023 2023-12-11T16:20:28+00:00

Economic Outlook – 3 December 2023

2023-12-03T20:29:36+00:00

USA  Nominal personal income increased 0.2% in October, in line with the median economist forecast. The wage/salary component showed just a 0.7% gain, the smallest in 10 months, whereas income derived from government transfers edged down 0.7%. Personal current taxes, meanwhile, fell 0.2%. All this translated into a 0.3% increase in disposable income Nominal personal spending, for [...]

Economic Outlook – 3 December 2023 2023-12-03T20:29:36+00:00

November 2023

Economic Outlook – 26 November 2023

2023-11-26T22:27:02+00:00

USA  The S&P Global Flash Composite PMI remained unchanged in November at 50.7 and consistent with just a modest expansion in private sector activity. New orders returned to growth in the month after three consecutive contractions, but that did not prevent yet another decline in unfinished business. Reduced work backlogs in turn encouraged firms to cut [...]

Economic Outlook – 26 November 2023 2023-11-26T22:27:02+00:00

Economic Outlook – 19 November 2023

2023-11-26T14:43:04+00:00

USA  The Consumer Price Index held steady in October instead of rising 0.1% as per consensus. This followed a 0.4% gain the prior month. Prices in the energy segment fell 2.5% in October as a 1.2% gain for utility gas services was more than offset by declines for gasoline (-5.0%) and fuel oil (-0.8%). The cost [...]

Economic Outlook – 19 November 2023 2023-11-26T14:43:04+00:00

Economic Outlook – 12 November 2023

2023-11-15T05:48:48+00:00

USA The trade deficit widened from $58.7 billion to $61.5 billion. Good imports increased $7.0-billion (to $263.0 billion), led by cell phones/other household goods (+$1.8 billion), passenger cars (+1.7 billion), and computer accessories (+$0.4 billion). Goods exports, for their part, climbed $5.3 billion on gains for civilian aircraft (+$1.0 billion), gem diamonds (+$0.8 billion), and other [...]

Economic Outlook – 12 November 2023 2023-11-15T05:48:48+00:00

Economic Outlook – 5 November 2023

2023-11-05T05:20:31+00:00

USA Nonfarm payrolls rose 150K in October, below the median economist forecast calling for a +180K print. This negative surprise was compounded by a -101K cumulative revision to the previous months’ data. Employment in the goods sector fell 11K as a 23K gain in the construction segment was more than offset by a 35K drop for [...]

Economic Outlook – 5 November 2023 2023-11-05T05:20:31+00:00

October 2023

Economic Outlook – 29 October 2023

2023-11-01T23:04:44+00:00

USA Real GDP grew 4.9% annualized in the third quarter, more than the median economist forecast calling for a +4.5% print. YOY, real GDP expanded 2.9%. Domestic demand grew at a very healthy clip in the three months to September, supported by household consumption (+4.0% QoQ annualized) and structure (+1.6%), intellectual property (+2.6%), and residential (+3.9%) [...]

Economic Outlook – 29 October 2023 2023-11-01T23:04:44+00:00