US Following a string of upbeat U.S. economic reports (on employment, auto sales and non-manufacturing), the October retail sales release was a relative dud. Although core sales rose modestly, they have softened since the summer, suggesting a loss of momentum heading into the holiday shopping season. Real consumer spending looks to increase about 3% y/y [...]
US The call for Federal Reserve rate hikes grew louder this week. In testimony to Congress on Wednesday, Fed chairwoman Yellen noted that the next FOMC meeting in December is a “live possibility” for interest rate hikes. On Friday, a resounding jobs report that showed the economy created 271k jobs in October added a jolt [...]
US The Federal Reserve maintained its stance on monetary policy at its October Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, holding its short-term target rate steady. The meeting was largely a non-event; however, language in the statement was adjusted to show less concern about the impact of global developments and financial markets on the overall economy [...]
US Data released since the September meeting should have supported the Fed in its position to leave interest rates unchanged for now, as the employment report for September disappointed with payroll gains of 142k. Although a loss of momentum was to be expected since full employment has all but been achieved, the slowdown from a [...]
US The decision as to whether interest rates should be hiked for the first time since 2006 will not be an easy task for the Fed, as data are not painting a clear picture. On the one hand, the headwinds from emerging markets are increasing, the dollar has appreciated markedly and the inflation rate is [...]
US On the FED, FOMC participants continued to anticipate that the conditions for policy firming had been met or would likely be met by the end of the year. Nevertheless, in part because of the risks to the outlook for economic activity and inflation, the FOMC decided that it was prudent to wait for additional [...]
US Third quarter GDP growth looks like it is shaping up to be a bit of a disappointment in light of rather stiff headwinds from inventories and international trade. However, economic data this week indicated that once again the consumer sector is poised to support greater consumer spending in Q3. Real consumer spending in August [...]
US The decision by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) not to lift the federal funds rate at last week’s meeting came as no surprise. However, the rationale given by FED Chair Janet Yellen for not moving and the perceived tone of her comments did. Although Yellen acknowledged that there had been an active discussion [...]
US The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) kept interest rates unchanged due to concerns about global weakness, especially in China, but left open the possibility of a modest policy tightening later this year. In the Committee’s own words: “Recent global economic and financial developments may restrain economic activity somewhat and are likely to put further [...]
US The main event in the coming week is the FOMC meeting on 16-17 September. The meeting will provide updated economic projections as well as a press conference with Chair Yellen. The US economy has made significant progress over the past year, in particular on the labour market. As full employment has virtually been reached [...]
