USARobust retail sales data were the main story on the U.S. economic data front this week. Retail sales handily exceeded expectations, rising 0.7% in March. Excluding autos, sales rose 1.1%, the biggest monthly pop in more than a year. The better-than-expected gain was further bolstered by sharp upward revisions to the data in February. Sizable [...]
USAThe Consumer Price Index rose 0.4% in March, one tick above the median economist forecast calling for a +0.3% print. This followed another 0.4% gain the prior month. Prices in the energy segment climbed 1.1% as gains for gasoline (+1.7%) and electricity (+0.9%) were only partially offset by a 1.3% decline for fuel oil. Prices [...]
USA Nonfarm payrolls rose 303K in March, a lot more than the median economist forecast calling for a +214K print. Adding to the news, the prior’s month data was revised upward a cumulative 22K. Employment in the goods sector rose 42K (the most in 14 months) on a steep gain in construction (+39K). Manufacturing [...]
USA The S&P Global Flash Composite PMI slipped from 52.5 in February to 52.2 in March, a level that nonetheless remains consistent with a healthy improvement in private sector operating conditions. New orders and output continued to expand, albeit at a slower pace than in the prior month. That did not prevent employment [...]
USAThe Consumer Price Index rose a consensus-matching 0.4% in February after climbing 0.3% the prior month. Prices in the energy segment rose 2.3%, on gains for gasoline (+3.8%), fuel oil (+1.1%), utility gas services (+2.3%), and electricity (+0.3%). The cost of food was unchanged month on month. The core CPI, which excludes food and energy, [...]
USANonfarm payrolls rose 275K in February, a lot more than the median economist forecast calling for a +275K. However, this upside surprise was more than compensated by a -167K cumulative revision to the prior months’ data. Employment in the goods rose 19k as a 23K gain in construction was only partially offset by a 4K [...]
USANominal personal income increased 1.0% in January, a lot more than expected by consensus (+0.4%). The wage/salary component of income showed a 0.4% gain, whereas income derived from government transfers surged 2.3%, the most since 2021M07. Personal current taxes, meanwhile, jumped 6.0%. All this translated into a 0.3% increase in disposable income. Nominal personal spending, [...]
USA In hindsight, Fed officials had every reason to remain cautious in timing the pivot to policy easing. Since the January 30th-31st FOMC meeting, the economic data has done little to instill further confidence that inflationary pressures will continue to recede over the coming months. Not only did the January employment report come in [...]
USA The Consumer Price Index climbed 0.3% in January, topping the median economist forecast calling for a 0.2% increase. The index rose 0.2% the prior month. Prices in the energy segment fell 0.9% as gains for utility gas services (+2.0%) and electricity (+1.2%) were more than offset by steep declines for fuel [...]
USA The ISM Services index was in the spotlight. In short, the service sector started the year off on a high note. In January, the headline index jumped to a reading of 53.4, up from 50.5 in December. The surprisingly strong upturn is evidence that service sector activity is still running at a [...]
