USANonfarm payrolls rose 275K in February, a lot more than the median economist forecast calling for a +275K. However, this upside surprise was more than compensated by a -167K cumulative revision to the prior months’ data. Employment in the goods rose 19k as a 23K gain in construction was only partially offset by a 4K [...]
USANominal personal income increased 1.0% in January, a lot more than expected by consensus (+0.4%). The wage/salary component of income showed a 0.4% gain, whereas income derived from government transfers surged 2.3%, the most since 2021M07. Personal current taxes, meanwhile, jumped 6.0%. All this translated into a 0.3% increase in disposable income. Nominal personal spending, [...]
USA In hindsight, Fed officials had every reason to remain cautious in timing the pivot to policy easing. Since the January 30th-31st FOMC meeting, the economic data has done little to instill further confidence that inflationary pressures will continue to recede over the coming months. Not only did the January employment report come in [...]
USA The Consumer Price Index climbed 0.3% in January, topping the median economist forecast calling for a 0.2% increase. The index rose 0.2% the prior month. Prices in the energy segment fell 0.9% as gains for utility gas services (+2.0%) and electricity (+1.2%) were more than offset by steep declines for fuel [...]
USA The ISM Services index was in the spotlight. In short, the service sector started the year off on a high note. In January, the headline index jumped to a reading of 53.4, up from 50.5 in December. The surprisingly strong upturn is evidence that service sector activity is still running at a [...]
USAOverall, the messaging from the Federal Reserve was positive. Chair Powell stated that the committee was pleased by the progress made thus far on returning inflation to their 2% target, but noted that they would require more time to assess the sustainability of current disinflation trends. With economic growth accelerating last year on the back [...]
USA Real GDP expanded 3.3% annualized in the fourth quarter, a lot more than the median economist forecast calling for a +2.0% print. Year on year, real GDP expanded 3.1%. Domestic demand grew at a healthy clip in the three months to December, supported by household consumption (+2.8% QoQ annualized) as well as [...]
USA Retail sales rose 0.6% in December, overshooting the +0.4% print expected by consensus. The prior month’s result was left unchanged at +0.3%. Sales of motor vehicles and parts contributed positively to the headline print by advancing 1.1% in the final month of Q4. Without autos, retail outlays rose a consensus-topping 0.4% as [...]
USA The Consumer Price Index rose 0.3% in December, more than the median economist forecast calling for a +0.2% print. The index had edged up 0.1% the month before. Prices in the energy segment progressed 0.4% as declines in two categories—fuel oil (-5.5%) and utility gas services (-0.4%)—were more than offset by gains [...]
USANonfarm payrolls rose 216K in December, more than the median economist forecast calling for a +175K print. This positive surprise, however, was offset by a -71K cumulative revision to the previous months ‘data. Employment in the goods sector in December advanced 22K thanks in large part to a 17K gain in the construction sector on [...]
