US After January’s cycle-high pace of existing US home sales, contract closings dipped in February to a 5.48-million unit pace. This was somewhat expected as pending home sales, which are counted when a contract is signed and are a leading indicator for existing home sales, declined in January. Low inventory of homes for sale and [...]
US The Federal Reserve raised its short-term target rate 25 bps at its March FOMC meeting, with one dissent. Median projections were largely unchanged and still point to three hikes in 2017 and 2018. The target range now rests between 0.75% and 1.00%. The timing of the next rate hike remains elusive, but with political [...]
US In the light of the recent positive readings, the FOMC is expected to raise the target range for the Fed funds rate on March 15th by 25 bps to 0.75% to 1.00% (an 88-bp midpoint), with the other policy rates following suit (interest rate paid on reserves to 1.00%, overnight reverse repo rate to [...]
US Speeches by Federal Reserve officials continued to prep the markets for an increase in interest rates “relatively soon.” Market expectations have responded, with the Fed fund futures pricing in a 96% probability that the Fed will raise rates at the March 15 meeting. The ISM manufacturing composite rose to 57.7 in February, which is [...]
US Following the first monthly contraction in five months in December, existing home sales rebounded 3.3% in January to a 5.69 million-unit rate, reaching the highest level in the post-recession period. Single-family sales rose 2.6% from an upwardly revised December print, and condos/co-ops grew 8.3% during the month. The jump in sales activity in January [...]
US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Chair Yellen went to Capitol Hill for her semiannual testimony. While uneventful for the most part, clear signals were sent that the FOMC intends to hike rates at a slightly faster pace this year. With respect to understanding when the FOMC may decide to halt reinvestments of maturing portfolio [...]
US International trade data for December was released leaving participants with little to chew on by way of economic data. The trade deficit narrowed to $44.3 billion from $45.7 billion in the prior month, beating economists’ expectations for a more modest pullback (to $45.0 billion). Exports bounced back after two months of contraction, while imports [...]
US The Federal Reserve held rates steady this week, as widely expected. It reiterated the strengthening US domestic outlook would warrant gradual policy tightening over the medium term. No clues were given on the timing of the next move, likely because uncertainty surrounds the unfolding of the new administration’s policy, and the Fed can afford [...]
US Real GDP growth in the United States slowed to end of 2016, registering a 1.9% annualised growth rate in Q4. International trade weighed heavily on economic growth in Q4, largely as a result of some payback due to the unusual surge in soybean exports that boosted growth in Q3. Real final sales to domestic [...]
US In a speech this week, Fed Chair Yellen said: “Now, it’s fair to say, the economy is near maximum employment and inflation is moving toward our goal.” The economic progress made in getting to this point was the justification for last month’s rate hike. Looking ahead, not only is economic progress expected to continue [...]
