US May’s NFP (nonfarm payroll) report showed that 138,000 jobs were added for the month, while the unemployment rate remained low at 4.3%. Among the industries adding the most jobs for the month were, professional services, education and health, and leisure and hospitality. The unemployment rate dipped to 4.3% as the labor force participation rate [...]
US New and existing home sales in April were released and both slipped further than expected. New homes sales were down 11.4% on the month and existing sales were down by 2.3%. April’s 569,000-unit pace of new home sales follows an upwardly revised 642,000-unit pace in March which marks the cycle-high for the series. Sales [...]
US Industrial production jumped 1.0% in April, surpassing expectations for a more modest increase. The series is now 2.2% above its year-ago level, which marks the strongest pace since 2014. The report details showed broad-based strength, as production rose across most household and business goods. Notably, manufacturing output climbed 1.0% on the month, and with [...]
US The National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) Small Business Optimism Index kicked off the week with a small decline of 0.2 points in April. The decline was led by a drop in expectations for improvement in the economy, which fell 8 points following the initial unsuccessful attempt to replace the Affordable Care Act. Despite [...]
US The ISM manufacturing index showed factory sector activity had cooled a bit in April. The reading of 54.8 was the third consecutive decline and was lower than consensus. At 54.8, however, the index remains firmly in expansion territory and signals a clear improvement relative to the past couple years. The ISM’s service sector counterpart [...]
US First estimate of Q1 GDP growth was expected to be on the weak side, as Q1 has tended to be many times over the past decade. Still, residual seasonality in the series does not explain the very weak showing for personal consumption in the first three months of 2017. Personal consumption has been the [...]
US Housing market data released last week were generally mixed but continued to improve on trend. The NAHB / Wells Fargo Housing Market Index fell three points in April from its cycle-high in March. Despite the pullback, confidence remains relatively high. The present sales index has trended above 70 for five consecutive months, signalling strong [...]
US Headline US retail sales fell in line with expectations in March, declining 0.20%. February’s already soft print was revised lower, however. Weakness in auto sales continued to weigh on the headline, with auto sales falling in four of the past five months. Control group retail sales, which filter directly into GDP, rose a better-than-expected [...]
US The six-month stretch of consecutive monthly increases in the ISM manufacturing headline ended in March, as the index dipped slightly from 57.7 to 57.2. Still, the measure of factory activity is solidly in expansion territory. Current production was the main drag on the headline, falling 5.3 points to a still-solid 57.6. The ISM survey [...]
US Comments from a few top Fed officials last week suggest that the path of policy tightening may be steeper than expected. Two hawkish Fed officials suggest that more than three hikes may be possible for this year. Agreeing with Rosengren, Fed Williams said that he “would not rule out more than three increases”. Fed [...]
