Economic Outlook

November 2017

Economic Outlook – 5 November 2017

2017-11-06T13:59:42+00:00

US Consumer spending accelerated at the end of Q3, with nominal consumption rising 1.0% in September. Inflation trimmed off 0.4%, leaving real consumer spending up 0.6% on the month. Spending was higher for both services and goods, with durable goods posting an especially strong increase. Hurricane related purchases were likely at work in September’s gain, [...]

Economic Outlook – 5 November 2017 2017-11-06T13:59:42+00:00

October 2017

Economic Outlook – 29 October 2017

2017-10-30T22:30:09+00:00

US The modest 0.3% gain in industrial production for September would have likely been larger had it not been for the quarter percentage point drag from Hurricanes Harvey and Irma. Industrial production fell at a 1.5% annualised rate in the third quarter, but according to Fed estimates, this figure would have been an increase of [...]

Economic Outlook – 29 October 2017 2017-10-30T22:30:09+00:00

Economic Outlook – 22 October 2017

2017-10-22T13:16:51+00:00

US The modest 0.3% gain in industrial production for September would have likely been larger had it not been for the quarter percentage point drag from Hurricanes Harvey and Irma. Industrial production fell at a 1.5% annualised rate in the third quarter, but according to Fed estimates, this figure would have been an increase of [...]

Economic Outlook – 22 October 2017 2017-10-22T13:16:51+00:00

Economic Outlook – 15 October 2017

2017-10-15T11:53:19+00:00

US August JOLTS data show demand for labor was solid before the storms, suggesting the decline in September should reverse rather easily. Openings remained at their record highs, though that did little to entice workers to leave their current positions. The quit rate held in its 2.1% to 2.2% range that it has bounced between [...]

Economic Outlook – 15 October 2017 2017-10-15T11:53:19+00:00

Economic Outlook – 8 October 2017

2017-10-08T09:43:55+00:00

US In the US, employment contracted for the first time in seven years last month as Hurricanes Harvey and Irma disrupted work and typical hiring. NFP (nonfarm payroll) contracted by 33,000 jobs in September, led by a 111,000 decline in the leisure & hospitality sector. Average hourly earnings rose a stronger-than-expected 0.5% but the drop [...]

Economic Outlook – 8 October 2017 2017-10-08T09:43:55+00:00

September 2017

Economic Outlook – 1 October 2017

2017-09-30T19:43:53+00:00

US Housing data kicked off the week in what was a relatively light data week in the United States. New home sales fell 3.4% to a 560,000-unit annualised pace in August. The Houston metro area accounts for about 5.0% of new home sales, providing an indication of the magnitude of hurricane-related disruptions. Inventory of new [...]

Economic Outlook – 1 October 2017 2017-09-30T19:43:53+00:00

Economic Outlook – 24 September 2017

2017-09-25T07:41:37+00:00

US The Federal Reserve is further along in reducing monetary stimulus, with four rate hikes under its belt. This week it formally announced that it will start reducing the size of its $4.4 trillion balance sheet in October. The pace will be very gradual, with the monthly runoff amounting to 0.2% of its balance sheet. [...]

Economic Outlook – 24 September 2017 2017-09-25T07:41:37+00:00

Economic Outlook – 17 September 2017

2017-09-17T10:37:18+00:00

US Consumer prices rose 0.4% in August, the largest monthly jump since January. Leading the index was a 2.8% rise in energy costs. Prices for gasoline had already been inching higher ahead of the Harvey-related surge late in the month. Core inflation rose 0.2% in August, which was the largest monthly gain since February. On [...]

Economic Outlook – 17 September 2017 2017-09-17T10:37:18+00:00

Economic Outlook – 10 September 2017

2017-09-10T12:07:34+00:00

US Jobless claims jumped to 298K from 236K in the prior week. The Labor Department reported an unadjusted increase of roughly 52K claims in Texas. It is reasonable to expect claims will continue to rise in coming weeks due to the recent calamities affecting the South of the US. The US trade deficit remained largely [...]

Economic Outlook – 10 September 2017 2017-09-10T12:07:34+00:00

Economic Outlook – 3 September 2017

2017-09-03T10:56:55+00:00

US Payroll growth slowed in August with employers adding 156,000 jobs. It is worth noting that the initial print for August payrolls has historically seen the largest upward revisions between the first and third release. Over the past five years, August payrolls have been revised up by an average of 46,000, suggesting the extent of [...]

Economic Outlook – 3 September 2017 2017-09-03T10:56:55+00:00