US The Fed released the FOMC meeting minutes which reveled the participants’ similarly grim growth outlooks. This which showed most participants believed the Fed would keep the rate at the zero lower bound through at least 2022, hence reiterating the Fed’s dedication to supporting the economy through the crisis and its willingness to adjust policy [...]
US After a major deterioration in April, both of the ISM indices improved in May, with the weightier non-manufacturing index coming in better than expected. Despite the uptick, both indices are still in contractionary territory. US vehicles sales echoed a similar message, coming in a bit better than expected (up nearly 40.0% month-on-month), though at [...]
US The May consumer confidence report was one encouraging signal. Consumer confidence rose 0.9 points to 86.6 in May, after sharp, back-to-back monthly declines in March and April. Overall, the level of consumer confidence remains well-below readings from the past several years, but for now, it appears the free-fall in confidence has ended. The forward-looking [...]
US The latest jobless claims data did not provide much cause for optimism. Some 2.2 million people applied for regular state benefits in the week ended 16 May (on a non-seasonally adjusted basis). However, an increasing number of states have started to report the number of people applying for the Pandemic Unemployed Assistance (PUA) separately, [...]
US US Federal Reserve Chair Powell said that while the government's response to the coronavirus pandemic has been both timely and large, "it may not be the final chapter, given that the path ahead is both highly uncertain and subject to significant downside risks." Powell again ruled out the use of negative policy rates but [...]
US April nonfarm payrolls confirmed that the labor market is collapsing. By the survey week of 12 April, net employment had fallen by 20.5 million jobs, more than ten times larger than the previous worst month on record. COVID-19 wiped out nine years of job gains in a single month, as the 131 million Americans [...]
US An additional 3.8 million Americans filed for unemployment insurance, bringing total initial claims over the past six weeks to over 30 million. This dwarfs past recessions. With so many jobs lost and more at risk, consumers have cut back sharply on spending. Services spending accounts for over 45.0% of US GDP and is typically [...]
US Oil prices went negative for the first time in history as the evaporation of demand collided with supply that literally cannot be shut off quickly enough. Specifically, the expiring front-month WTI contract price fell below zero, as holders of the security squirmed to avoid having to take physical delivery with oil storage space scarce [...]
US Retail sales plunged 8.7% in March, as a 26.0% surge in grocery store sales was drowned out by historic declines in both durable (furniture -27.0%, autos -26.0%) and nondurable (clothing -50.0%, restaurants -27.0%) discretionary spending. Even this understates the decline in personal consumption, as retail sales do not include hotel stays, airline or movie [...]
US The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index tumbled 8.1 points in March. This was the largest one-month drop in the index’s history. This drop, however, did not capture the full extent of the deterioration in business conditions that took place later that month. A special survey conducted by the NFIB found that most businesses only [...]
