USANew-home sales data for July blew past expectations, rising 10.6% over the month and printing in at 739K versus a median economist forecast calling for just a 623K rise. This rise is further contributed to by a revision in last month's reading, where June data was lifted to 668K from 617K. This month’s release marks [...]
USAThe Consumer Price Index rose 0.2% in July after declining 0.1% the prior month. More precisely, prices advanced 0.15% on an unrounded basis, which allowed year-over-year inflation (2.9%) to print one-tick below consensus (3.0%). Overall energy prices stagnated as increases in fuel oil/other fuels (+1.9%) and electricity (+0.1%) were offset by declines in utility gas [...]
USANonfarm payrolls rose 114K in July, a long shot below the 175K Bloomberg consensus forecast and even further below a revised 179K increase in June. This downside surprise came alongside a 29K cumulative downwards revision to the prior two months. Goods sector employment rose 25K while service-producing industries grew by 72K. Of the headline job [...]
USAThe Consumer Price Index dipped 0.1% in June instead of rising 0.1% as per consensus. This followed a flat reading the prior month. The core CPI, which excludes food and energy, edged up 0.1%. This was less than the +0.2% print expected by consensus and the smallest increase recorded in 41 months (since 2021M01). YoY, [...]
USANFP (Nonfarm payrolls) rose 206K in May, more than the median economist forecast calling for a +190K print. However, this positive surprise was more than offset by a 111K cumulative negative revision to the prior months’ results. Employment in the goods sector rose 19K as a 27K gain in the construction segment was only partially [...]
USAThe third and final estimate of Q1 GDP growth came in at +1.4% in annualised terms, in line with economist survey expectations and a tick higher than the second estimate last month. Household consumption was revised down another half percentage point (from +2.0% to +1.5%), marking a full percentage-point change from the advance estimate in [...]
USARetail sales edged up 0.1% in May, less than the +0.3% print expected by consensus. Adding to the disappointment, the prior month’s result was revised downward, from +0.0% to -0.2%. Sales of motor vehicles and parts contributed positively to the headline print in May, as they expanded 0.8%. Without autos, outlays cooled 0.1%, as gains [...]
USAThe FOMC launched a mildly hawkish contingency plan on the back of the significant setback in inflation's progress toward target during Q1. That verbal guidance was made concrete as the FOMC kept its policy rate unchanged at 5.25% to 5.5%. This is a huge contrast to the dovish signalling at the start of this year. [...]
USANonfarm payrolls rose 272K in May, a very sizeable beat versus the Bloomberg consensus projection of 180K. A slight offset to the stronger-than-expected print was a 10K downward revision to April’s reading with an additional 5K jobs were shaved from March’s data. Employment in goods-producing industries registered a 25K increase largely due to gains in [...]
USANominal personal income rose a consensus-matching 0.3% in the U.S. in April following a 0.5% increase the prior month. The wage/salary component of income advanced 0.2%, whereas income derived from government transfers rose 0.3%. Personal current taxes, meanwhile, jumped 0.9%. All this translated into a 0.2% increase in disposable income. Nominal personal spending, for [...]
