US The November retail sales report came in a lot weaker than expected. After an impressive run of positive gains from May to September, consumer outlays decreased for the second month in a row, adding to signs that the US economic rebound is losing its spring amid the surging number of COVID-19 cases. The real [...]
US The Consumer Price Index rose 0.2% in November after holding steady the month before. The result overshot consensus expectations for a 0.1% print. Energy prices overall were up 0.4% month-on-month as lower gasoline prices (-0.4%) were more than offset by higher prices for electricity (+0.5%), gas (+3.1%) and fuel oil (+3.6%). The cost of [...]
US The ISM Manufacturing Index fell 1.8 points to a still strong 57.5 in November. The ISM is a diffusion index and measures the breadth of strength or weakness in the factory sector rather than the magnitude. Any reading above 50 means more manufacturers see conditions at their business improving rather than weakening. The forward-looking [...]
US The Markit flash composite PMI came in at 57.9 in November (56.3 in October), signaling the broadest improvement in private-sector activity since March 2015. The degree of optimism towards future output sprang to its highest point since May 2014, with survey respondents citing improved hopes of a COVID-19 vaccine and an end to election [...]
US Retail sales improved by 0.3% in October, extending their winning streak to six months. The outturn, however, was below market expectations and a marked deceleration in the pace of gains from the 1.5% averaged in the three months prior. Within this slowing trend, there’s a noticeable shift toward online shopping. Sales at non-store retailers, [...]
US Small business confidence was unchanged in October, although business owners are clearly concerned about the future path of economic policy. The uncertainty index jumped to 98.0 in October, near a record high. The election uncertainty will fade, but the recent spike in COVID cases and what that is likely to mean for customer engagement [...]
US October NFP (nonfarm payrolls) showed another month of solid gains. The improvement in the unemployment rate was even more impressive, falling a full percentage point to 6.9% from 7.9%. Just as encouraging, the report showed a rebound in the labor force participation rate and decline in the permanent job losses. These have been rising [...]
US The American economy rebounded sharply in Q3 following one of the steepest contractions on record in Q2. Economic growth accelerated at a 33.1% annualized pace, recovering about two-thirds of the activity lost in the first half of the year. Overall, real GDP is still 3.5% below where it was at the end of 2019. [...]
US The September existing home sales report reinforced the notion that the housing market remains a bright spot, even as most sectors of the economy continue to struggle under the weight of the pandemic. After gains moderated in the two months prior, resale activity surged by 9.4% in September, blowing expectations out of the water. [...]
US The latest inflation report should quiet the stagflation chatter that had emerged after a couple of hot months for core inflation. Both headline and core CPI rose a middling 0.2% in the month of September. However, removing an outsized 6.7% month-on-month increase in used vehicle prices leaves core inflation flat on the month. During [...]
