Markets and Presidential Office Fundamentals Update as at 15 January 2014 by Lorenzo Beriozza The beginning of the year is often full of talk about what indicators to watch as to how the year may unfold: the first five days indicator, the January effect, the Super Bowl indicator, even the Chinese lunar New Year cycle, [...]
US Labour Market and Tapering Fundamentals Update as at 13 January 2014 by Lorenzo Beriozza The December US Labour market report came in on a very worrying note, as job creations almost stalled. Only 74,000 positions were added in December, after an average of 205,000 over the previous three months. At the same time, the [...]
ECB Monetary Policy Fundamentals Update as at 12 January 2014 by Lorenzo Beriozza The European Central Bank (ECB) announced that it would leave its monetary policy rate unchanged at 0.25% and would take no further action this month, despite the looming threat of deflation in Europe. Inflation levels in the Eurozone dropped to 0.8% year [...]
EU Slow Recovery Fundamentals Update as at 11 January 2014 by Lorenzo Beriozza The ESI in the Euro zone rose in December by a further 1.6 points to 100. This level corresponds to the long-term average. The rise was stronger than generally expected. Although sentiment indicators hardly allow conclusions to be drawn on the strength [...]
US Earnings Season Fundamentals Update as at 10 January 2014 by Lorenzo Beriozza This week the earnings reporting season has started — the start of which is traditionally marked by the earnings report from Alcoa, no longer a component of the Dow Jones Industrial Average, but still a well-known company. Alcoa’s report on Thursday, January 9, [...]
Euro Zone Deflation January 2014 Fundamentals Update as at 8 January 2014 by Lorenzo Beriozza According to preliminary calculations, the rate of inflation in the euro zone fell from 0.9% in November to 0.8% in December (table). The rate is thus approaching its low (0.7%) from October when the ECB lowered interest rates in a surprise [...]
EU Periphery Monitor January 2014 Fundamentals Update as at 7 January 2014 by Lorenzo Beriozza Euro area periphery data continue their improvement and in line with this sovereign spreads have tightened further. In particular the Spanish economy looks stronger and the 10-year spread between Spain and Germany is below 200bp for the first time since [...]
US Taper Fundamentals Update as at 19 December 2013 by Lorenzo Beriozza The facts behind yesterday FOMC’s decision of starting the tapering are: The Federal Open Market Committee decided to reduce the scale of its monthly asset purchases by $10 billion starting in January 2014. As a result, the Committee will add to its holdings of [...]
US Budget Deal Analysis Fundamentals Update as at 18 December 2013 by Lorenzo Beriozza The plan effectively substitutes later deficit reduction for current increases in spending by relaxing the sequester caps for two years. In fact, about $45 Billion of the easing in budgetary authority happens in FY2014, with another $19 Billion in FY2015. This [...]
Japan Balance of Payment Fundamentals Update as at 17 December 2013 by Lorenzo Beriozza Japan posted a seasonally adjusted current account deficit of ¥59.3 billion for October, marking a second straight month in the red (-¥125.2 billion for September) for the first time in records dating back to 1996 and only the fourth monthly deficit [...]
