US The ISM manufacturing and non-manufacturing indexes reversed weak August readings in September, suggesting that weakness was more likely the result of seasonal quirks than a material slowdown. The manufacturing index returned to expansion territory, adding 2 points to 51.5 in September. The picture improved in most of the subcomponents. The most notable was the [...]
US The third estimate of real GDP growth advanced at a 1.4%, a bit faster from the previously-reported 1.1% increase. The still-anemic upwardly revised reading is due to a smaller drag in inventories, structures and equipment and an uptick in net exports. Real final sales, which removes the more volatile GDP components, was also revised [...]
US The Fed left its policy rate unchanged “for the time being.” The case for a rate hike has strengthened with three members wanting to lift rates this week, exemplified by a rare triple dissent. The Fed has all but set itself up for a hike later this year, with most members remaining optimistic for [...]
US Market volatility picked up this week after a post-Brexit summer slumber, with moves dominated by speculation on whether we have seen seen the bottom for longer-term global interest rates. Weaker than expected retail sales and industrial production data for August suggested modestly slower growth in 16H2, while stronger inflation data is consistent with absorption [...]
US August’s pullback in the ISM non-manufacturing index marked the largest pullback since late 2008. While still in expansion territory, the services measure stands at 51.4 compared to a 55.5 reading in July. The details of the report were also disappointing with the business activity index falling 7.5 points, the forward-looking new orders component declining [...]
US The closely watched August employment report came in below expectations, topping off a full week of economic data releases. Since Chair Yellen’s speech last Friday, the Fed’s case for an interest rate hike was strengthened by solid personal income and spending gains, increased consumer confidence and continued job growth. According to the US consumer [...]
US New home sales jumped 12.4% in July. In contrast, existing home sales fell last month, and look to be restrained by low inventories and deteriorating affordability. The increase puts sales back at levels that have not been seen since before the recession. While new home sales can be noisy from month to month, sales [...]
US Market participants are still confounded on the US Fed’s next policy move. Slack is diminishing and monthly indicators suggest economic activity is gaining momentum – a stage in the cycle that should warrant consensus from Fed officials on normalising the target rate. Federal Reserve officials have gone out of their way last week to [...]
US Productivity growth has been quite dismal in the current economic cycle. As the key determinant of a prosperous economy, the exceptionally weak trend in productivity does not bode well for the long-term economic outlook, but does support hiring and income gains in the short term. As the Federal Reserve monitors incoming data to guide [...]
US Despite a dismal Q2 real GDP reading, the jump in US NFP (non farm payrolls) in July and upward revisions to previous months’ data suggest the overall economy has not lost any steam. Coming in much better than expected, NFP rose by 255,000 jobs, with the unemployment rate unchanged at 4.9%. With upward revisions [...]
