US International trade data for December was released leaving participants with little to chew on by way of economic data. The trade deficit narrowed to $44.3 billion from $45.7 billion in the prior month, beating economists’ expectations for a more modest pullback (to $45.0 billion). Exports bounced back after two months of contraction, while imports [...]
US The Federal Reserve held rates steady this week, as widely expected. It reiterated the strengthening US domestic outlook would warrant gradual policy tightening over the medium term. No clues were given on the timing of the next move, likely because uncertainty surrounds the unfolding of the new administration’s policy, and the Fed can afford [...]
Whether you are a supporter of President Trump or not, there is no denying that he certainly has the ability to coin a catchy phrase that can really stick in the public mind. We have been gifted with many catch phrases and names over the past 12 months: “crooked Hilary”, “drain the swamp” and of [...]
US Real GDP growth in the United States slowed to end of 2016, registering a 1.9% annualised growth rate in Q4. International trade weighed heavily on economic growth in Q4, largely as a result of some payback due to the unusual surge in soybean exports that boosted growth in Q3. Real final sales to domestic [...]
US In a speech this week, Fed Chair Yellen said: “Now, it’s fair to say, the economy is near maximum employment and inflation is moving toward our goal.” The economic progress made in getting to this point was the justification for last month’s rate hike. Looking ahead, not only is economic progress expected to continue [...]
US The key economic data for the US was the December retail sales figure that showed a rise in consumer spending driven largely by autos and gasoline. While broadly in line with expectations, sales ex-autos and gasoline were virtually unchanged from the previous month. Overall, the data is consistent with the narrative that tightening labor [...]
US US Fed policy makers agreed to raise the target range for Fed funds rate to 0.50% – 0.75% in their last meeting “in light of considerable progress that had been made toward the Committee’s objective of maximum employment and that inflation would rise to 2.00% in the medium term.” The minutes suggested that “upside [...]
With President-Elect Trump’s inauguration fast approaching, public speculation regarding what his term will actually entail is arguably higher than any other presidential tenure in recent memory. The back and forth discussions of “will he”, “won’t he” have created division, disagreement and insecurity. On the other hand, if you observe US assets, the assumption is much [...]
With many people considering 2016 to be an annus horribilis, it is safe to assume that there is a high level of uncertainty in the air as we head into the New Year. Political fragmentation appears to be the flavour of the moment, with Brexit and Trump’s election victory taking centre stage. However, despite the [...]
US The big news was the second rate hike out of the FOMC since 2006. FOMC committee members signaled that more rate hikes may be needed in 2017, which sent interest rates higher across the yield curve. A closer look at the “dot plot” showed six FOMC members look for three rate hikes next year, [...]
