US Headline US retail sales fell in line with expectations in March, declining 0.20%. February’s already soft print was revised lower, however. Weakness in auto sales continued to weigh on the headline, with auto sales falling in four of the past five months. Control group retail sales, which filter directly into GDP, rose a better-than-expected [...]
US The six-month stretch of consecutive monthly increases in the ISM manufacturing headline ended in March, as the index dipped slightly from 57.7 to 57.2. Still, the measure of factory activity is solidly in expansion territory. Current production was the main drag on the headline, falling 5.3 points to a still-solid 57.6. The ISM survey [...]
US Comments from a few top Fed officials last week suggest that the path of policy tightening may be steeper than expected. Two hawkish Fed officials suggest that more than three hikes may be possible for this year. Agreeing with Rosengren, Fed Williams said that he “would not rule out more than three increases”. Fed [...]
US After January’s cycle-high pace of existing US home sales, contract closings dipped in February to a 5.48-million unit pace. This was somewhat expected as pending home sales, which are counted when a contract is signed and are a leading indicator for existing home sales, declined in January. Low inventory of homes for sale and [...]
US The Federal Reserve raised its short-term target rate 25 bps at its March FOMC meeting, with one dissent. Median projections were largely unchanged and still point to three hikes in 2017 and 2018. The target range now rests between 0.75% and 1.00%. The timing of the next rate hike remains elusive, but with political [...]
US In the light of the recent positive readings, the FOMC is expected to raise the target range for the Fed funds rate on March 15th by 25 bps to 0.75% to 1.00% (an 88-bp midpoint), with the other policy rates following suit (interest rate paid on reserves to 1.00%, overnight reverse repo rate to [...]
US Speeches by Federal Reserve officials continued to prep the markets for an increase in interest rates “relatively soon.” Market expectations have responded, with the Fed fund futures pricing in a 96% probability that the Fed will raise rates at the March 15 meeting. The ISM manufacturing composite rose to 57.7 in February, which is [...]
US Following the first monthly contraction in five months in December, existing home sales rebounded 3.3% in January to a 5.69 million-unit rate, reaching the highest level in the post-recession period. Single-family sales rose 2.6% from an upwardly revised December print, and condos/co-ops grew 8.3% during the month. The jump in sales activity in January [...]
US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Chair Yellen went to Capitol Hill for her semiannual testimony. While uneventful for the most part, clear signals were sent that the FOMC intends to hike rates at a slightly faster pace this year. With respect to understanding when the FOMC may decide to halt reinvestments of maturing portfolio [...]
Headlines this month have suggested that the rocky relationship between the US and China is on a path to improvement, following the acceptance of the ‘one China’ policy. While this does seem to have reversed some of the political tension, it does appear to be a case of giving with one hand and taking with [...]
