US The FOMC raised its short-term target rate 25 basis points at its June meeting to 1.25%, and published an addendum to lay the foundation for normalising the Fed’s balance sheet, with the caveat economic activity “evolves broadly as anticipated.” It is that anticipation that is causing the latest divergence in views between the Fed [...]
US In the US, the most striking piece of data from this past week was the surge in job openings in April. Openings rose a sizeable 259,000, surpassing 6.0 million in total and marking a new all-time high for the series. This is an encouraging development, as the labor market continues to create jobs at [...]
US May’s NFP (nonfarm payroll) report showed that 138,000 jobs were added for the month, while the unemployment rate remained low at 4.3%. Among the industries adding the most jobs for the month were, professional services, education and health, and leisure and hospitality. The unemployment rate dipped to 4.3% as the labor force participation rate [...]
US New and existing home sales in April were released and both slipped further than expected. New homes sales were down 11.4% on the month and existing sales were down by 2.3%. April’s 569,000-unit pace of new home sales follows an upwardly revised 642,000-unit pace in March which marks the cycle-high for the series. Sales [...]
US Industrial production jumped 1.0% in April, surpassing expectations for a more modest increase. The series is now 2.2% above its year-ago level, which marks the strongest pace since 2014. The report details showed broad-based strength, as production rose across most household and business goods. Notably, manufacturing output climbed 1.0% on the month, and with [...]
US The National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) Small Business Optimism Index kicked off the week with a small decline of 0.2 points in April. The decline was led by a drop in expectations for improvement in the economy, which fell 8 points following the initial unsuccessful attempt to replace the Affordable Care Act. Despite [...]
US The ISM manufacturing index showed factory sector activity had cooled a bit in April. The reading of 54.8 was the third consecutive decline and was lower than consensus. At 54.8, however, the index remains firmly in expansion territory and signals a clear improvement relative to the past couple years. The ISM’s service sector counterpart [...]
US First estimate of Q1 GDP growth was expected to be on the weak side, as Q1 has tended to be many times over the past decade. Still, residual seasonality in the series does not explain the very weak showing for personal consumption in the first three months of 2017. Personal consumption has been the [...]
US Housing market data released last week were generally mixed but continued to improve on trend. The NAHB / Wells Fargo Housing Market Index fell three points in April from its cycle-high in March. Despite the pullback, confidence remains relatively high. The present sales index has trended above 70 for five consecutive months, signalling strong [...]
In our earlier article titled ”The Deleveraging Myth and The Revival Of U.S. Real Estate Concerns“, we brought up the issue of household debt and, in particular, how this may affect the U.S. real estate market. However, if household debt is to become a key issue, there are other industries that may also suffer. One [...]
