US Retail sales plunged 8.7% in March, as a 26.0% surge in grocery store sales was drowned out by historic declines in both durable (furniture -27.0%, autos -26.0%) and nondurable (clothing -50.0%, restaurants -27.0%) discretionary spending. Even this understates the decline in personal consumption, as retail sales do not include hotel stays, airline or movie [...]
Guest post by The Duomo Initiative. Back in January, Wilbur Ross, the US Commerce Secretary, believed that COVID-19 would accelerate the return of jobs to the US. Unfortunately, as the economy comes to a standstill, businesses close their doors and people are asked to stay at home, it seems the very opposite is taking place. [...]
US The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index tumbled 8.1 points in March. This was the largest one-month drop in the index’s history. This drop, however, did not capture the full extent of the deterioration in business conditions that took place later that month. A special survey conducted by the NFIB found that most businesses only [...]
US Employers reported payrolls declined by 701K workers in March. This was much worse than expected, yet it only hints at what’s to come. The report “predated many coronavirus-related business and school closures that occurred in the second half of the month,” due to the timing of the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) survey (March [...]
Most of last week's data releases can be ignored as they are from before the spreading of the coronavirus and the data releases are in fact outdated since the economy is in another place now. Marina Cassar Derjavets. US In the US, beginning to be released are data incorporating the near-global shutdown of economic activity [...]
Most of last week's data releases can be ignored as they are from before the spreading of the coronavirus and the data releases are in fact outdated since the economy is in another place now. Marina Cassar Derjavets. US The government mandated closures of schools, bars, restaurants, gyms and movie theaters accelerated the shutdown and [...]
Most of the data releases can be ignored as they are from before the spreading of the coronavirus and these releases are in fact outdated since the economy is in another place now. Marina Cassar Derjavets. US Stocks suffered a week of historic losses as worries deepened about the impact of the novel coronavirus outbreak. [...]
US The Federal Reserve cut interest rates by a half percentage last Tuesday, hours after a G7 teleconference in which officials vowed to coordinate policy. Other central banks cutting rates include the Bank of Canada, which also cut rates by a half percentage, and the Reserve Bank of Australia, which cut by a quarter-point. While [...]
US The bond market now expects almost four Fed rate cuts by the end of the year, but one might rightly wonder how lower short-term rates would alleviate supply chain disruptions and aversion to international travel. Prior to the last major financial market flare-up, in December 2018, one could make the case that short-term rates [...]
US Minutes from the January FOMC meeting indicate the coronavirus will not push the Fed to cut interest rates. Positive housing and manufacturing survey data last week supported that view. While trade tensions have receded markedly in recent months, the coronavirus has taken its place as the latest source of uncertainty plaguing businesses and investors. [...]
