US Consumer Confidence fell by a larger than expected 9.1 points to a still respectable 125.1. Consumers grew more cautious about both the present situation and future conditions. The robust assessment of the labor market a month earlier was also completely reversed. The Conference Board’s survey was out of sync with the University of Michigan’s [...]
US An unusually divided Federal Open Market Committee cut its target rate a quarter point to between 1.75% and 2.0% and left the door open to additional cuts. Two members of the committee dissented, arguing rates should be left unchanged. One member voted for a deeper, half-point cut. US Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell offered [...]
US CPI inflation is beginning to heat up more materially. Core prices rose 0.3% for the third straight month, pushing the three-month annualised inflation rate to a 13-year high. The year-on-year rate hit 2.4%, which suggests PCE inflation (which tends to run about 0.3% below CPI inflation) may finally be at the Fed’s target. A [...]
US The ISM manufacturing index fell below 50 in August for the first time since 2016, as more firms reported a contraction than an expansion in manufacturing activity. The decline in the new orders subcomponent was even more worrisome. At 47.2, new orders tied the cycle low set in 2012, and suggests activity will remain [...]
US The second estimate of Q2 2019 GDP showed the economy grew at a 2.0% annualised pace, which was only a tenth lower than the initial estimate, most likely the consumer carried the weight in the second quarter. But revised data show personal consumption expenditures rose an even stronger 4.7% (4.3% previously), adding 3.1 percentage [...]
