US First estimate of Q1 GDP growth was expected to be on the weak side, as Q1 has tended to be many times over the past decade. Still, residual seasonality in the series does not explain the very weak showing for personal consumption in the first three months of 2017. Personal consumption has been the [...]
US Housing market data released last week were generally mixed but continued to improve on trend. The NAHB / Wells Fargo Housing Market Index fell three points in April from its cycle-high in March. Despite the pullback, confidence remains relatively high. The present sales index has trended above 70 for five consecutive months, signalling strong [...]
In our earlier article titled ”The Deleveraging Myth and The Revival Of U.S. Real Estate Concerns“, we brought up the issue of household debt and, in particular, how this may affect the U.S. real estate market. However, if household debt is to become a key issue, there are other industries that may also suffer. One [...]
US Headline US retail sales fell in line with expectations in March, declining 0.20%. February’s already soft print was revised lower, however. Weakness in auto sales continued to weigh on the headline, with auto sales falling in four of the past five months. Control group retail sales, which filter directly into GDP, rose a better-than-expected [...]
US The six-month stretch of consecutive monthly increases in the ISM manufacturing headline ended in March, as the index dipped slightly from 57.7 to 57.2. Still, the measure of factory activity is solidly in expansion territory. Current production was the main drag on the headline, falling 5.3 points to a still-solid 57.6. The ISM survey [...]
US Comments from a few top Fed officials last week suggest that the path of policy tightening may be steeper than expected. Two hawkish Fed officials suggest that more than three hikes may be possible for this year. Agreeing with Rosengren, Fed Williams said that he “would not rule out more than three increases”. Fed [...]
