USA The ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI remained relatively stable in expansion territory in February, moving from 55.2 to 55.1. This stabilization confirms that the December decline in the ISM index was exacerbated by poor weather conditions which caused numerous power outages and disrupted the travel plans of several households. Growth in business activity decelerated (from 60.4 to [...]
USA The Consumer Price Index sprang 0.5% in January, the most in seven months. This was roughly in line with consensus expectations. Prices in the energy segment jumped 2.0% as a decline for fuel oil (-1.2%) was more than offset by steep increases for gasoline (+2.4%) and utility gas services (+6.7%). The cost of food, meanwhile, [...]
USA The Consumer Price Index sprang 0.5% in January, the most in seven months. This was roughly in line with consensus expectations. Prices in the energy segment jumped 2.0% as a decline for fuel oil (-1.2%) was more than offset by steep increases for gasoline (+2.4%) and utility gas services (+6.7%). The cost of food, meanwhile, [...]
USA The trade deficit widened from $61.0 billion in November to $67.4 billion in December. The expansion was due in large part to a 1.8% surge in goods imports (to $258.8 billion), led by consumer goods ($4.1 billion) and automotive vehicles/parts ($2.9 billion). Good exports, meanwhile, contracted 1.7% (to $168.1 billion) on decreases for industrial supplies [...]
USA Nonfarm payrolls surged 517K in January, the most in 6 months and nearly three times as much as the +188K print expected by consensus. Adding to this positive surprise, the previous months’ data were revised upward a cumulative 71K. Note that historical establishment data have been revised in January as a result of the annual [...]
USA The Bureau of Economic Analysis put out its first estimate of Q4 GDP growth. The economy reportedly expanded 2.9% annualized in the quarter, a bit more than the median economist forecast calling for a +2.6% print. This gain hoisted economic output 5.1% above its pre-COVID level and reduced the output gap to only 0.5%. Domestic [...]
USA Retail sales were down 1.1% in December. Economists were expecting them to decline 0.9%. Adding to the disappointment, November’s sales growth was revised down from -0.6% to -1.0%. Sales of motor vehicles/parts contributed negatively to the headline print, contracting 1.2%. Without autos, retail outlays retreated 1.1% as small gains for building materials (+0.3%) and sporting [...]
USA The Consumer Price Index edged down 0.1% in December, the indicator’s first decline in five months. The result was in line with consensus expectations. Prices in the energy segment dropped 4.5% as declines for fuel oil (-16.6%) and gasoline (-9.4%) were only partially offset by a 3.0% gain for utility gas services. The cost of [...]
USA Nonfarm payrolls rose 223K in December, slightly more than the +203K print expected by consensus. Compensating for this positive surprise, the previous month’s data were revised downward a cumulative 28K. Taking these revisions into account, nonfarm payrolls were roughly in line with expectations and signaled weaker, albeit still healthy, job gains. Employment in the goods [...]
USA The Consumer Price Index and Federal Open Market Committee meeting took center stage. Headline CPI surprised to the downside, rising just 0.1% in November. On a YoY basis, consumer price growth softened to 7.1%, down from 7.7% in October. Energy weighed on the overall index as gasoline prices slid 2.0% and energy services [...]
