USA The November release of the ISM services index kicked off the week with a surprisingly strong reading on the U.S. economy. The index rose 2.1 points to 56.5 despite consensus expectations for a roughly one-point decline. The outturn was higher than any of the 60 forecast estimates submitted to Bloomberg. The better-than-expected gain [...]
USA Fed Chair Jerome Powell spoke touching on many of the same hawkish themes that dominated the press conference after the November meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee, such as keeping rates at a high level for a considerable period. However, Powell acknowledged that the pace of rate hikes is likely to slow as soon [...]
USA Durable goods orders jumped 1.0% in October, far more than the 0.4% increase expected by consensus. Orders in the transportation category sprang 2.1%, with gains in the defense aircraft (+21.7%), civilian aircraft (+7.4%), and vehicles and parts (+0.6%) segments. Excluding transportation, orders advanced 0.5% after retreating 0.9% in September. The report showed, also, that orders [...]
USA • Retail sales increased 1.3% in October, overshooting the +1.0% print expected by economists. There was no revision to the prior month’s flat line (+0.0%). Higher sales of motor vehicles and parts (+1.3%) contributed positively to the headline print in October. Without autos, retail outlays still advanced 1.3% on gains for gasoline stations (+4.1%), [...]
USA • There was some clear relief in consumer inflation in October, which is a welcome development for households and policymakers alike. The headline consumer price index rose "just" 0.4% during the month, which was below the Bloomberg consensus expectation for a 0.6% gain and caused the year-ago pace to fall back to 7.7%, or [...]
USA • The ISM Manufacturing PMI slipped from 50.9 in September to 50.2 in October, marking the weakest expansion in the sector since the early months of the pandemic. The output index rose from 50.6 to 52.3 and the new orders index went from 47.1 to 49.2but remained in contraction territory (<50) for the fourth [...]
USA • The Bureau of Economic Analysis put out its first estimate of Q3 GDP growth. The economy reportedly expanded 2.6% annualized in the quarter, a bit more than the median economist forecast calling for a +2.4% print. This gain hoisted economic output 4.2% above its pre-COVID level and narrowed the output gap to only [...]
USA • Industrial production expanded 0.4% in September and reached a new all-time high. Manufacturing output, too, sprang 0.4% as production of motor vehicles/parts (+1.0%) continued to recover after being hit by semiconductor shortages last year. Excluding autos, factory output still advanced 0.5% on a 1.1% gain for computers/electronics. Utilities output shrank 0.3% as temperatures [...]
USA • Consumer Price Index jumped 0.4% in September, twice the pace expected by consensus (+0.2%). Prices in the energy segment fell 2.1% as declines for gasoline (-4.9%) and fuel oil (-2.7%) were only partially offset by a 2.9% gain for utility gas services. The cost of food, meanwhile, sprang no less than 0.8%. The [...]
USA • Lower job openings, higher jobless claims, and slowing job growth all provided some evidence of a softening labor market, but a lower unemployment rate and solid wage growth clouded the aggregate outlook. Equity markets rallied to start the week with hopes of a ‘Fed pivot’ before retreating on Friday as the jobs report [...]
