USA • The ISM Manufacturing PMI slipped from 50.9 in September to 50.2 in October, marking the weakest expansion in the sector since the early months of the pandemic. The output index rose from 50.6 to 52.3 and the new orders index went from 47.1 to 49.2but remained in contraction territory (<50) for the fourth [...]
USA • The Bureau of Economic Analysis put out its first estimate of Q3 GDP growth. The economy reportedly expanded 2.6% annualized in the quarter, a bit more than the median economist forecast calling for a +2.4% print. This gain hoisted economic output 4.2% above its pre-COVID level and narrowed the output gap to only [...]
USA • Industrial production expanded 0.4% in September and reached a new all-time high. Manufacturing output, too, sprang 0.4% as production of motor vehicles/parts (+1.0%) continued to recover after being hit by semiconductor shortages last year. Excluding autos, factory output still advanced 0.5% on a 1.1% gain for computers/electronics. Utilities output shrank 0.3% as temperatures [...]
USA • Consumer Price Index jumped 0.4% in September, twice the pace expected by consensus (+0.2%). Prices in the energy segment fell 2.1% as declines for gasoline (-4.9%) and fuel oil (-2.7%) were only partially offset by a 2.9% gain for utility gas services. The cost of food, meanwhile, sprang no less than 0.8%. The [...]
USA • Lower job openings, higher jobless claims, and slowing job growth all provided some evidence of a softening labor market, but a lower unemployment rate and solid wage growth clouded the aggregate outlook. Equity markets rallied to start the week with hopes of a ‘Fed pivot’ before retreating on Friday as the jobs report [...]
USA • Durable goods orders fell 0.2% in August, slightly less than the consensus forecast calling for a 0.3% decrease. Orders in the transportation category were down 1.1% as gains for vehicles and parts (+0.3%) were offset by losses for non-defence aircraft (-18.5%). Excluding transportation, orders were up a consensus-matching 0.2%, marking the sixth consecutive [...]
USA • The Federal Reserve hiked the target range for the federal funds rate 75 bps to 3%–3.25% and will continue to reduce its holdings of Treasuries via a quantitative tightening process, with monthly caps doubling as previously telegraphed. The interest rate on reserve balances increased an equivalent 75 bps to 3.15%. There were no [...]
USA • In August, the Consumer Price Index belied consensus expectations by ticking up instead of down. This came after a flat print the prior month. Prices in the energy segment fell 5.0% on declines for gasoline (-10.6%) and fuel oil (-5.9%), but these were partially offset by an increase for utility gas services (+3.5%). [...]
USA • The short week following the Labor Day holiday was a relatively quiet one for U.S. economic data, sandwiched between last week's employment report and next week's critical CPI release. On Tuesday, the ISM services index topped expectations. The index registered a robust 56.9 reading, and the subcomponents were equally encouraging. Both the business [...]
USA • The S&P Global flash composite PMI sank from 47.7 in July to 45.0 in August, marking a second consecutive contraction in private-sector activity and the sharpest since May 2020. Outside of the pandemic period, this was also the lowest reading recorded in data going back to 2009. New orders fell the most in [...]
