GLOBAL • Oil prices rises to the highest level in two years. This week OPEC stuck to the current plan of gradually normalising oil output. This led to Brent rising to just below USD72/bbl, as the market seems more concerned about risk of tight oil market in coming months than OPEC normalising output too fast. [...]
USA • The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index dipped 0.3 point to 117.2, its first decline since December 2020. This essentially flat print was characterized by increased confidence in the present situation (+12.4 points to 144.3) but decreased optimism about the future (-8.8 to 99.1). Where the current conditions subindex is concerned, the percentage of [...]
USA • Housing starts moved from a 15-year high of 1,733K in March to 1,569K in April (seasonally adjusted and annualized). This was significantly below the 1,704K print expected by analysts. The monthly decline was driven by the single-family category, where starts dropped 13.4% to 1,087K. Starts in the multi-family segment, meanwhile, crawled up 0.8% [...]
USA • The Consumer Price Index rose 0.8% in April after climbing 0.6% the prior month. This result blew past consensus expectations calling for just a +0.2% print. The energy component edged down 0.1% thanks in part to a 1.4% decline in the gasoline segment. The cost of food, for its part, rose 0.1%. The [...]
USA • Construction spending rose 0.2% to US$1,513.1 billion, which is 5.0% above the February 2020 level. Residential spending increased 1.7% MoM to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of US$725.2 billion. Spending on new single-family homes rose 2.0% m/m and 26.7% y/y. Spending on new multi-family homes dipped 0.3% MoM. Private non-residential activity fell 0.9% [...]
USA • The Bureau of Economic Analysis put out its first estimate of Q1 GDP growth. The economy reportedly expanded an annualized 6.4% in the quarter, which was slightly less than the +6.7% print expected by consensus. Following in the wake of two solid showings in Q4 (+4.3%) and Q3 (+33.4%), this gain lifted economic [...]
USA • Initial jobless claims dropped from an upwardly revised 586K to a post-pandemic low of 547K in the week to April 17. Continued claims edged down, too, from 3,708K to 3,674K. Topping these up were the roughly 12.9 million people who received benefits in the week ended April 2 under two emergency programs: Pandemic [...]
USA • In March, housing starts rose 19.4% to a 15-year high of 1,739K (seasonally adjusted and annualized), exceeding by far the median economist forecast of 1,613K. Adding to the good news, the prior month’s result was revised up from 1,421K to 1,457K. The increase in March was driven by the multifamily category, where starts [...]
USA • The goods and services deficit widened US$3.3 billion to US$71.1 billion. Overall, trade activity was soft, with goods imports and exports sinking 3.5% (US$4.8 billion) and 0.9% (US$2.0 billion), respectively. In the service sector, exports sagged US$0.2 billion while imports rose US$0.3 billion. In light of many industry surveys reporting that widespread supply [...]
• Global supply chains have been strained for over a year due to disruptions and bottlenecks caused by the coronavirus, and this week's grounding of a massive container ship in the Egypt's Suez Canal has only added to the problem. As much as 12% of the world's seaborne trade has been halted by the accident, [...]
